Will young voters reroute Idaho?
The math is pretty embarrassing.
For background here, I happened to be talking with Shaun Keenan, a local Democratic organizer.
Keenan is also the campaign manager for Rebecca Cleveland-Schroeder, who is running against Republican Jim Addis for the open state representative spot in District 4 (Seat A).
“Rebecca not only is going to make this race competitive, we think it will come down to 500 votes either way,” Keenan said.
What’s remarkable about that statement is that both candidates were unopposed in the May primary, but Addis drew 3,807 votes to 2,050 for Schroeder.
Even I can round off those numbers and see that Schroeder is up against a double-up deficit, at least in terms of people who voted.
“What can change everything,” Keenan said, “is the number of residents in the district who didn’t vote at all.
“In our race and across the state, Democrats are in a good situation — as good as it can get in Idaho — because there’s momentum on our side, an anti-Trump sentiment, and issues like Medicaid and education to run on.
“Voters who haven’t participated in the past were some of the ones who helped Paulette Jordan shock everybody by really routing A.J. (Balukoff) in the primary for governor.
“There were a lot of votes out there that no one could forecast.”
Keenan’s enthusiasm in the face of repeated Republican victories made me wonder just how many unknown votes there really are in Kootenai County.
Looking at the numbers makes me want to say it again: We should be embarrassed.
A total of 22,705 people voted here in the May primary — this in a county with roughly 150,000 residents — and those voters accounted for just 29 percent of folks who actually registered.
Where was everybody else?
One astonishing figure is that in the 18-25 age group, only 3 percent of eligible voters participated in the primary.
THAT’S NOT a typographical error.
Just three out of every 100 eligible young people in this county bothered to register and vote.
Honestly, I’m not sure I’ve ever come across a statistic like that.
You can see why Schroeder and other Democrats believe they might buck what has become a landslide trend of Republican wins in Kootenai County.
Besides the fact that there are thousands of potential voters who remain completely in limbo, almost the entire youth vote has gone untapped.
“That’s why we’re excited,” Keenan said. “It’s been kids, in a lot of cases, who have been out marching these days.
“The current status quo exists because of apathy among the population in general, but especially among young people.”
I understand Keenan’s logic, and I’m sure Schroeder — with her particular passion — is running a tireless race.
But to win, for any Democrat to win, they need a drop-dead turnout in November.
A lot of candidates have known that, and tried to make it happen — without success.
The GOP establishment is firmly in place for a good reason. People who care enough to vote have made this county — and almost the entire state — a Republican fortress.
Keenan now thinks this year will provide something different.
We’ll see.
But until the residents of Kootenai County show otherwise, I’m going to believe that a majority don’t really care.
I’d love it if you all proved me wrong.
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Steve Cameron is a columnist for The Press.
A Brand New Day appears Wednesday through Saturday each week. Steve’s sports column runs on Tuesday.
Email: scameron@cdapress.com.
Twitter:@BrandNewDayCDA
INFO BOX:
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•IdahoVotes.gov
•VoteSmart.org