Blue North Idaho? Not likely

In business, the Law of Diffusion of Innovation states that, if we took a sample of the population, and we analyzed how comfortable those people were with change, we would see a natural bell-shaped curve. On one side of the curve, about 15 percent of people get excited at the prospect of change and wait in line for hours to get the latest iPhone. On the opposite end of the curve, 15 percent are “laggards,” or people who resist change at any and all costs. These people still haven’t bought a cellphone because their land line works fine.

This law applies to political philosophy as well. The further left one sits on the political spectrum, the more likely one is to embrace change. The further to the right, the more resistant or hesitant one is toward change. Liberalism embraces progress for better or worse, while conservatism embraces the old adage, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Together, they balance one another, with liberalism pushing society toward change and conservatism pumping the brakes when necessary.

I was originally contacted for Steve Cameron’s May 21 article based on my expertise in communication studies (not theology, as stated in the original piece, though I did take a religion class as an undergrad once). Using a Gallup poll showing Americans have become more accepting of several divisive issues over the last 15 years, the interview began with the question, “Do you think Kootenai County is shifting left?”

Without hesitation, I answered, ‘no.’

For the sake of clarifying my response, look at interracial marriage as an example of shifting views. According to Pew Research, in 1958, only 4 percent of Americans approved of interracial marriage. By 1987, that number hit 50 percent, and currently, it has cleared 90 percent.

By the original article’s reasoning, we might be tempted to assume America is becoming more liberal, based solely on acceptance of interracial marriage. However, all it means is that, on this one issue, the public has acclimated, and Americans have had enough time to see that interracial marriage poses no threat to the American way of life. The issue worked its way through the diffusion of innovation, leaving only laggards to still debate an issue most Americans accepted as the norm long ago.

Regarding the Gallup poll, values of 15 years ago that may have once been firmly associated with liberal views have also had time to settle and become adopted as the norm for a larger percentage of Americans. The issues have moved, not our philosophies.

A quick glance at recent voting results confirms that Kootenai County shows little to no evidence of migrating to the left. While attitudes on specific issues may change over time, the evolution of the political culture of an entire region is considerably slower.

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Josh Misner, PhD, is a communication instructor at North Idaho College.