White Christmas more than likely in North Idaho

We’re into the full moon cycle this week and temperatures are expected to get colder across the Inland Empire. There is still the chance for some snow showers in the lower elevations during this full moon cycle that began today and ends on Nov. 20, thanks to the invasion of chilly air from the north. The mountain areas are also expected to see some of the white stuff, but we’re not sure it’s going to be enough to open many of the ski resorts during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

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It continues to be an extreme weather pattern here in the Inland Northwest as well as the rest of the world. October was the second wettest month in recorded history here in Coeur d’Alene with 8.88 inches of rain. The month with the most precipitation occurred in December 1933 with a total of 9.91 inches. Spokane had its all-time wettest month in October, with 6.23 inches of rain.

We’ve already passed our seasonal normal precipitation of 26.77 inches here in Coeur d’Alene. As of late last week, precipitation totals were around 28.50 inches, with more moisture heading our way.

Since the record-breaking rainfall last month, the first two weeks of November have been a little drier than normal with very mild temperatures. There were several days in the 60s with a record-breaking 63 degrees on Nov. 8.

We’re not seeing the pattern of storm after storm like in October. However, there should be occasional storms moving in from the Pacific, bringing us rain and snow through the rest of the year. The Thanksgiving holiday weekend will also have the chance of some rain and snow shower activity, but the bigger storms should arrive during the new moon cycle of late November and early December. The rest of December and January looks snowy across the Inland Northwest.

WHITE CHRISTMAS?

Our forecast predicts a high 80 percent chance or greater of at least an inch of snow on the ground across most of Canada and much of the extreme northern U.S. north of Interstate 90 on Christmas Day.

The chances for snow in late December have increased because we have a new but rather weak, cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean. Last year, we had the warmer El Nino sea-surface temperature pattern. In December 2015, we had a whopping 37.2 inches of snow in Coeur d’Alene.

As frigid Arctic air pushes southward into the northern and central U.S., heavier snowfalls are expected from the violent collisions between the very cold air to the north and copious amounts of moisture from the North Pacific regions, as well as the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, if these weather patterns work out, Cliff and I believe that there is a 70 percent chance of a White Christmas across North Idaho, extreme northeastern Washington and Montana.

Elsewhere across the country, while much of the region from about I-90 northward has an 80 percent chance of snow on Christmas Day, there is a 70 percent chance of a White Christmas across New England. Probabilities dip to 50 percent between Interstate 90 and Interstate 80, which includes most of Idaho, Colorado, South Dakota, much of Nebraska, Iowa, northern and central Illinois, northern Ohio and Pennsylvania and New York State, but not New York City. The Big Apple has only a 30 percent chance of a White Christmas this year.

Cities and towns in the central U.S. near Interstate 70 eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states likewise have around a 30 percent chance of seeing snow on the ground on Dec. 25. There is only a 10 percent chance of a White Christmas across parts of the southern U.S. this year, but anything is possible in this cycle of wide weather extremes.

Although we are in the cooler La Nina cycle, the southern U.S., including Southern California and the Desert Southwest, are not likely to have any snow as we seem to be in a warmer temperature pattern across the globe.

In other countries, much of northern Europe and northern Asia have a very good chance for a White Christmas in 2016. The northern British Isles have a 30 percent chance of a White Christmas, with a strong 80 to 90 percent probability of snow across Norway, Sweden and Finland in Scandinavia. From eastern Europe into Russia, there is a 60 to 90 percent chance for a White Christmas. Northern Italy only has about a 30 percent chance of seeing snow on Dec. 25.

Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com