Gas price plunge coming

The fall usually brings cheaper pump prices, a result of lower seasonal demand and the switchover to cheaper-to-produce winter grade fuel.

Though that hasn’t happened just yet in Idaho, there are better days ahead, says AAA.

Idahoans are still paying the seventh-highest pump prices in the U.S. and the spread between the Gem State and U.S. average prices widened a nickel to 25 cents a gallon in the past month. Idaho’s average price today is $2.46, up 5 cents in the past month, compared to a U.S. average price of $2.21 which is unchanged during that time.

“An unexpected combination of pipeline and refinery issues and uncertainty about future oil production kept an upward pressure on Idaho pump prices,” said AAA spokesman Matthew Conde. “Even after Idaho completed the switchover to cheaper-to-produce winter-blend fuel, market forces created a savings mirage, because our state still had some of the highest prices in the U.S.”

Seasonal maintenance at some California refineries temporarily reduced supply, which in a typical year is offset by reduced seasonal demand. When BP was forced to postpone scheduled maintenance of its Olympic Pipeline until last week due to Typhoon Songda, regional supplies tightened even further.

“Under these conditions, it’s our observation that some of the fuel originally intended for Idaho is usually diverted to other regional markets including Nevada and Washington,” Conde said.

When that happens, Idahoans typically pay more at the pump.

But looking a few weeks down the road, prices should settle lower in the Rocky Mountain region. Oil prices have recently dropped in a shocking and unexpected fashion, and it appears the trend will continue. “Barring additional supply pressure regionally, Idahoans should see a welcome discount on gas prices heading into the holiday season,” said AAA spokesman Matthew Conde.

The price for West Texas Intermediate oil has dropped more than $6 a barrel in the past two weeks, from $50.84 to $44.07. Gas prices should soon follow as wholesale prices plunge. For every dollar decrease in barrel prices, Idahoans should save about 2.4 cents on a gallon of gas.

Even so, market experts continue to monitor future oil production. Two weeks ago, OPEC officials met in Vienna to discuss a potential production freeze agreement, but a reluctance to participate by Iran and Iraq ended negotiations. The next official OPEC meeting is scheduled for Nov. 30.

National gas prices recently ended a streak of 832 consecutive days where the average U.S. gas price was lower than it was the year before. The streak lasted from July 13, 2014 to Oct. 22, 2016.

Here’s a sample of current gas prices across the Gem State: Arco - $2.50, Boise - $2.45, Bonner’s Ferry - $2.58, Burley - $2.43, Chubbuck - $2.46, Couer d'Alene - $2.43, Emmett - $2.47, Hailey - $2.60, Idaho Falls - $2.42, Kooskia - $2.47, McCall - $2.68, Moscow - $2.56, Pocatello - $2.46, Sandpoint – $2.45, Shoshone - $2.40, Twin Falls - $2.41.