Once-strong El Nino causing more extremes

Since early this year, we’ve been hearing about El Nino, the warmer than normal sea-surface temperature pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean. The latest data now shows that El Nino is weakening at a rapid rate. In fact, we’re beginning to see regions of cooler than normal readings from along the Equatorial regions and the West Coast of South America. This is one of the big indicators that El Nino is falling apart.

Despite the rapid weakening of this phenomenon, El Nino’s influence continues to be felt across the globe. For example, many officials blame the disastrous fire in Alberta, Canada, that began last Sunday on El Nino. The extended heat and dryness likely helped to create a wildfire so big that all 88,000 residents of Fort McMurray were forced to evacuate. A state of emergency was declared as this blaze has destroyed over 1,600 buildings. It’s the biggest disaster in Alberta’s history. There have also been huge wildfires in Indonesia as well.

Across southeastern Asia, eastern and southern Africa, Central America and the Caribbean, severe drought has resulted in food shortages. According to the United Nations, 60 million people are in need of emergency relief.

In addition to the extreme dryness, there has also been intense heat across southeastern Asia. All-time record warmth has been reported in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. The intense heat has also been observed in parts of India, China and Africa. Temperatures in mid April soared to around 110 degrees across southeastern Asia with a near-record 112 degrees in Thailand. With the record warmth and severe drought, El Nino is also blamed for new disease outbreaks and disruption of health services.

In California, the southern portion of the state was counting on record rainfall from what was considered one of the strongest El Ninos in history. Unfortunately, most of the moisture fell to the north as many parts of Southern California received approximately 50 to 60 percent of normal rainfall for the 2015-16 season. In Northern California, totals were near 100 to 150 percent. It did help the drought situation, but many areas of the Golden State will be entering their sixth year of dryness.

By contrast to the heat and dryness, the warm water phenomenon has also led to several 500-year massive floods along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Iran also reported record floods earlier this year.

El Nino is probably responsible, at least in part, for the big rise in global temperatures in February, March and April. According to new satellite data, March was the hottest on record. Arctic sea ice also set a record for the lowest maximum extent. Scientists reported that April was another month with record global temperatures.

From the latest information, this weakening El Nino should be with us into at least the early summer season. Then, we may have a new La Nada, the in-between El Nino and La Nina. Many computer models are now forecasting a new La Nina, the cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event, by late this year. Australian scientists give the odds at 50/50 for a new La Nina.

Scientists are using long-term climate patterns and computer models to attempt to predict conditions in the coming months based on sea-surface temperature trends. Some of these forecasts are predicting one of the hottest summers in recent history, especially in the central portions of the country. However, another study points to a more moderate summer.

In our part of the world, we should continue to see above normal temperatures with near to below normal precipitation into the middle of June. The big ridge of high pressure that has brought us the very warm spring is expected to move to the east by this summer. We would then be on the western edge of the high pressure system which should bring temperatures and precipitation totals closer to normal. As I’ve said in previous columns, I don’t believe this summer will be as dry and hot as the one in 2015. The upcoming fall season is looking wetter than normal and Cliff and I also think that we’ll see more snow, especially in the lower elevations, for the 2016-17 season.

Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com