What's in store for Northwest and Midwest
Cliff has been informing his clients of a new Midwestern heat and drought pattern developing later this spring and summer that may be similar to the one back in 2012. During that year, extreme heat and dryness killed 123 people. It practically destroyed crops in the Corn Belt states in the nation’s midsection and caused over $31 billion in damage. This pattern was one of the worst since the infamous “Dust Bowl Days” of the 1930s.
Scientists are using long-term climate patterns and computer models to help predict conditions in the coming months across the country. Some of these forecasts are expecting one of the hottest summers in recent history, especially in the central portions of the U.S. However, another study points to a more moderate summer in the center portions of the country.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions have spread into Kansas, Oklahoma and western Texas. Much of Missouri is now reporting abnormally dry conditions despite some recent moisture.
Here in the Northwest, moisture totals have rebounded to above normal levels this year. Last summer’s heat and dryness led to severe drought across Washington and Idaho, but the big snows last December and the wet March helped that situation.
The possible heat and drought pattern in the Midwest this summer would be caused an expanding ridge of high pressure. This system has been responsible for the abnormally warm weather in the Far West since early April. Despite the clouds and much above normal rainfall in March, average temperatures in the Northwest were about 2-3 degrees warmer than normal. For April, the mean temperature is about 7-8 degrees above normal levels as there were a number of afternoons with highs around 20 to 25 degrees warmer than average.
The possible heat and drought pattern in the Midwest this summer would be caused by an expanding ridge of high pressure. This system has been responsible for the abnormally warm weather in the Far West since early April. Despite the clouds and much above normal rainfall in March, average temperatures in the Northwest were about 2-3 degrees warmer than normal. For April, the mean temperature is about 7-8 degrees above normal levels as there were a number of afternoons with highs around 20 to 25 degrees warmer than average.
There’s no doubt that spring arrived early. I’ve already dusted off my golf clubs and played my first round. I’m glad it’s early in the season, because that score is one I’m trying to forget.
It’s also been extreme in terms of precipitation across the Inland Northwest. In March, Cliff’s station reported 5.09 inches of moisture, compared to a normal of 1.94 inches. The first part of April turned dry and much warmer. For April, we ended up at 1.23 inches, compared to the normal of 1.77 inches.
The high pressure system in the West is expected to expand and move to the east by the late spring and summer season. If history manages to repeat itself, the Midwest is expected to turn much drier and hotter, which would likely damage corn and soybean crops. Commodity prices would go much higher if this pattern develops.
As the Midwest heats up and dries out, we should be on the western edge of the high pressure system. Therefore, temperatures would be a little cooler with occasional showers and thunderstorms this summer. In other words, Cliff and I are not expecting this summer to be as hot and dry as the one in 2015.
In terms of our near-term weather, it looks like our area will see temperatures again climb to around 80 degrees early this week, well above normal once again. The normal high temperature at this time of year is in the low to mid-60s.
As I mentioned last week, I expect to see occasional showers and thunderstorms between now and early June. After this brief period of dry and warm weather, we should see more showers and a few thunderstorms returning later this week. Then, conditions may turn drier than normal as temperatures warm up again toward the middle of the month. In fact, Cliff and I think that we could see temperatures close to the 90-degree mark around that time. Last year, during that torrid summer season, our first 90-degree day didn’t arrive until June 7.
The full moon cycle of May 21-28 has a better chance of rainfall across the Inland Northwest. With Memorial Day coming shortly after the end of the full moon cycle next month, there is the possibility of some shower activity, but most of the moisture should be over the mountains. In other words, I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans just yet.
Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com