A new La Nina may bring us a snowy winter
May of 2016 marked the end of one of the strongest El Ninos in recorded history. We are currently in a La Nada, the in-between warmer El Nino and cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean. Ocean temperatures are now cooling down along the Equatorial regions with a few areas around 3 degrees below normal. That’s quite a change for ocean temperatures since the beginning of the year when these same areas were over 3 degrees above average.
Sea-surface temperatures are expected to fall in the coming weeks, so it’s quite possible that a new La Nina will be declared by the fall season. Assuming this does occur, the chances of a snowier than normal winter season are much higher here in North Idaho and across the northern portions of the U.S.
Although ocean waters are cooling along the Equatorial regions, there are still plenty of warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, the Caribbean and along the East Coast of the U.S. There are also much above normal ocean waters across much of the Arctic regions. This area of warm water has been rather persistent for several years and is likely one reason why we’ve heard so much about the melting of the ice in this part of the world. Perhaps this warming is due to underwater volcanic activity as a number of thermal vents have been discovered in recent years.
According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology and the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, the government organizations that keeps a close eye on changing ocean temperatures, a new La Nina is expected to form in the very near future. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center gives a 75 percent chance that La Nina will come to life by the end of the year or even sooner. But, they don’t believe this new La Nina will be as strong as the one back in 2007 and 2008 when record snows hit our region.
Despite some cooling of ocean waters, we’ve been seeing some of hottest weather since June across much of the U.S. Temperatures have been over 100 degrees in the Great Plains with readings in the Desert Southwest near 120 degrees. The U.S. had the warmest June on record in Arizona and Utah. Cliff thinks that we may see more hot weather in the center of the country in August as the big ridge of high pressure is expected to rebuild in that area.
In California, a new La Nina is not good news. The southern portion of the state was counting on record rains last winter from that strong El Nino. Unfortunately, most of the moisture fell to the north as the southern portion of the Golden State only received approximately 50 to 60 percent of normal rainfall for the 2015-16 season.
The dry conditions have led to wildfires across Southern California and the Desert Southwest. The U.S. Drought Monitor still has “extreme” to “exceptional” drought conditions persisting across California’s central and southern sections with no rain in sight.
NO SUNSPOTS WERE SEEN ON THE SUN LATE LAST MONTH
Sunspots, or storms on the sun, were noticeably absent from June 23 through July 4. Our sun is currently coming out of a solar “maxima” cycle, which occurs approximately every 11 years. The new “minima” cycle is not expected to reach its lowest levels for at least several years, so it’s a bit unusual to see an extended period of no sunspot activity when the minima cycle is not expected to be in place until at least the late 2010s.
The last time the sun went silent for extended periods of time was back from 2007 through 2009. Record cold and snows were seen across parts of the northern U.S. and southern Canada. The Earth’s temperature also cooled down which surprised many scientists as we also had a strong La Nina.
In terms of our local weather, it looks like a hot and dry week with temperatures hovering around the 90-degree mark. The big high pressure looks like it will hold on in our area, but there is a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms toward the end of the “new moon” lunar cycle of Aug. 2-9, but mainly over the mountains. Cliff and I see another chance of showers and thunderstorms during the “full moon” cycle of Aug. 18-23. The early portion of the North Idaho State Fair may also see some showers, but we have our fingers crossed that most of the event will be dry.
Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com