Some of those Californians are getting soaked

Last week, I provided an update on the very strong El Nino, the warmer than normal sea-surface temperature pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean. As this phenomenon gained strength, many experts believed that typical weather patterns for this event, which include with heavy rains in Southern California and drier conditions to the north, would prevail.

However, at least as of late January, we’re seeing weather patterns that are different. For example, precipitation totals in Southern California range from about 60 percent of normal in Los Angeles to about 130 percent of normal in San Diego. Many forecasters believed that moisture totals would likely surpass 200 percent for the rainy season of 2015-16.

Storms slamming into the Far West, including the Inland Empire, have been originating more from the Gulf of Alaska, rather than from Hawaii. As a result, Northern California totals are about 100 to 150 percent of average. The Sierra Nevada Mountains are reporting snow depths of up to 10 feet. Last year, snow totals were so low that readings were down to only 5 percent when measurements were taken in April 2015.

During the big El Nino years, especially back in 1998, juicy storms would develop in the tropical portions of the Pacific and be pushed northward into the West Coast. For this season, there has been a relatively strong ridge of high pressure that has kept the heavier rainfall away from Southern California and pushed the Pacific storms rather to the north into Northern California.

The drought in California has been going on for over four years. Precipitation totals need to be at least twice normal to ease the excessive dryness. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, there is still “moderate drought” over much of Idaho, including Kootenai and Shoshone counties. Despite the much-appreciated moisture, there is “extreme” to “exceptional drought” across California’s Central Valley and along its south-central coastline.

Here in the Inland Empire, the unusual weather patterns have led to a tremendous ski season. As of late last week, Lookout Pass had picked up about 160 inches of snow for the season. Schweitzer had seen a little more of the white stuff with about 175 inches. Silver Mountain is not far behind with 144 inches for the 2015-16 season.

In the lower elevations, Coeur d’Alene and Spokane have seen some recovery from the extreme dryness last year. Since Oct. 1, 2015, the Spokane International Airport has picked up over 8 inches of rain and melted snow, which is over an inch above normal. At Cliff’s station in Northwest Coeur d’Alene, about 14 inches of rain and melted snow have fallen since Oct. 1. The majority of that came in December as 7.24 inches was reported.

In terms of snowfall, northwest Coeur d’Alene will likely fall to below average this week. Nearly 46 inches of the white stuff has fallen for the season. Cliff and I predict that we’ll see about another 10-12 inches in the lower elevations with at least another 2 feet in the mountains. The rest of the ski season looks good, but there may be some periods of rain rather than snow as milder air gets pushed northward into our region in February and March.

Speaking of rain, the milder weather pattern in the West has brought our region more rain than snow in recent weeks. I do see more rain for Coeur d’Alene and surrounding towns and cities for the rest of the winter season. But, don’t give up on the snow just yet. From late this month and into February, there are indications of additional of snow for the Inland Northwest, but we don’t see a pattern of the big snowfalls like we had in December.

Looking further out, many forecasters are holding onto the El Nino pattern of heavy rain moving into Central and Southern California in February. If this pattern develops, and we think there’s still a good chance that it will, this will mean drier and milder than normal weather for the Northwest for the late winter and early spring season. For May and June of 2016, assuming that El Nino is influencing weather patterns, we should see warmer than normal temperatures with precipitation returning to near-normal levels as the big high pressure is expected to slowly move eastward into the central U.S.

Stay tuned. Last year was full of wide weather extremes and we don’t expect this year to be any different.

Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com