Oscar predictions: The Academy will get it wrong
The 88th Academy Awards will trudge across our television screens this Sunday.
After weeks of discussion about the lack of Oscar diversity and Leonardo DiCaprio’s hellish experience shooting “The Revenant,” the movie conversation can finally turn to 2016.
While the acting categories appear to be set, there’s still a tight race for Best Picture. “The Big Short,” “The Revenant” and “Spotlight” seem to be deadlocked. My prediction: The Academy chooses the wrong movie. Again.
Here’s a breakdown of how you can expect things to go down on Sunday.
Best Picture
It’s not that “The Revenant” is a bad film. It’s just not Best Picture. Director Alejandro G. Inarritu’s technical craft is undeniable, and “The Revenant” contains some of the most gorgeous cinematography ever committed to film. The story, however, leaves a lot to be desired.
The narrative of its Oscar campaign has mostly centered on how difficult the film was to make. Shooting in the wilderness using only natural lighting can’t be easy. I just wish Inarritu could figure out how to balance his stylistic choices and thematic ambition with a coherent and engaging story.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, “Spotlight” focuses squarely on its storytelling, and the technical finesse of the film is justifiably overshadowed by its airtight screenplay.
It’s an important story well-told, and unfortunately Academy voters seem to be drifting away from the critical favorite. Inarritu’s “Birdman” did the same thing to “Boyhood” last year.
“The Big Short” is the real wild-card in this race.
The clever, often very funny takedown of the 2008 housing crisis has the ever-important Producers Guild award on its side, but certain voters will never vote for such “lighter” fare to represent the best cinematic art of 2015.
It would still be a better choice than “The Revenant,” as would most of the other Best Picture nominees.
Surprisingly, the Guilds and traditional precursors are no help this year. “Big Short” got the PGA.
“Spotlight” won with the Screen Actors Guild.
“The Revenant” hit with the Directors Guild, Golden Globes (they don’t matter) and the British Academy Awards.
In the end, “The Revenant” is a bigger box office hit, and its campaign gained momentum right at the time voters filled the ballot. Such a messy film shouldn’t win, but it probably will.
Will Win: “The Revenant.” Should Win: “Spotlight”
Director
Since Ridley Scott (“The Martian”) inexplicably missed the cut, you can expect Inarritu to secure the ultra-rare, back-to-back Directing Oscar.
If there’s any justice in the world, George Miller will pull out a deserved victory for “Mad Max: Fury Road.” Will win: Inarritu. Should win: Miller.
Actor
Did you hear about Leonardo DiCaprio and all his suffering on “The Revenant” set?
Look, DiCaprio is long overdue, but his work in “The Revenant” is all physical.
It lacks nuance and vulnerability. Oh well. Everyone likes Leo. Will win: DiCaprio. Should win: Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs.”
Actress
Brie Larson won pretty much everything on the pre-Oscar awards circuit for her incredible work in “Room.” Should and will win: Larson.
Supporting Actor
Hang onto your butts, America, because Sylvester Stallone is about to become an Oscar winner for acting.
What’s next, a reality-TV star as president? Will win: Stallone. Should win: Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies.”
Supporting Actress
Weird category this year, with lead performances by Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”) and Rooney Mara (“Carol”) worked into Supporting slots.
Vikander is considered the front-runner, but keep an eye on crafty Kate Winslet from “Steve Jobs.”
She’s always great, and she only has one previous win. Will win: Vikander. Should win: Mara.
Original and Adapted Screenplay
Always best to go with Best Picture front-runners when possible, and “Spotlight” (Original) and “The Big Short” (Adapted) might have to settle for victories here instead. “The Revenant” isn’t in the running. Go figure.
Animated Feature
Pixar’s “Inside Out” will be tough to beat, even alongside a strong bunch of fellow nominees.
Documentary Feature
The magnetic Amy Winehouse film, “Amy,” looks to be the strongest contender, though you can’t exactly rule out the others in the category, particularly “Cartel Land” or “What Happened, Miss Simone?”
Foreign Language Feature
The Hungarian “Son of Saul” is the heavy favorite. There is some heat on France’s “Mustang,” too, so consider it a Wild Card.
Editing
Generally an important predictor of Best Picture, the Editing trophy this year might instead be the highest profile win for “Mad Max: Fury Road.” Expect “Mad Max” to take a few more technical prizes. If “Spotlight” or “The Big Short” win here, it might indicate a potential Best Picture win. But there’s no changing your picks in the middle of the ceremony, so don’t cheat.
Cinematography
“The Revenant.” Even I can’t argue with this one.
Production Design
“Mad Max: Fury Road,” because the production design is completely nuts. And brilliant.
Costume Design
Period costumes generally win, but the two favorites in the sub-set are made by the same person (Sandy Powell for “Carol” and “Cinderella”). If the vote splits, “Mad Max: Fury Road” will benefit.
Makeup and Hairstyling
For “Mad Max,” it’s more about the makeup and less about Charlize Theron’s bald head.
Visual Effects
Might be the only mention of “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” on the entire program. Or it will just go to “Mad Max.”
Sound
It will take too long to explain the difference, so just expect “Mad Max” for Sound Editing and “The Revenant” for Sound Mixing.
Original Score
Legendary composer Ennio Morricone has never won an Oscar (honorary ones don’t really count). Good thing his score for “The Hateful Eight” is terrific and worthy of the trophy this year.
Original Song
Lady Gaga will win here for “Til It Happens To You,” a very good song from the documentary, “The Hunting Ground.” Good for Gaga, and great for co-writer Diane Warren. She’s never won despite seven previous nominations.
The Shorts
Always the toughest categories to predict, especially since so few viewers actually see the movies.
In Animated Short, I would hope the brilliant sci-fi of “World of Tomorrow” beats out the competition, while “A Girl in the River” and “Shok” are getting the most media mentions in Documentary Short and Live Action Short, respectively.
Go ahead and pick something else if you want.
The winners in these categories will only have about 12 seconds onstage to thank their lawyers.
Tyler Wilson can be reached at twilson@cdapress.com