Could we see a cooler La Nina late this year?
In about a month, winter will officially end and spring will begin. For the 2015-16 snowfall season, it was certainly an unusual year across the Inland Empire.
Prior to December of 2015, much of the western states, including Idaho, were in the midst of moderate to extreme drought conditions. Then, the last month of 2015 brought a whopping 7.24 inches of rain and melted snow to our area. Northwestern Coeur d’Alene, Cliff’s station, picked up a whopping 37.2 inches of the white stuff, with the majority falling from Dec. 15-31, 2015.
In January of 2016, it was another wet month with 4.37 inches of moisture and 7.8 inches of snowfall. For February, all of the moisture since the 4th has been in the form of rain. We did pick up 4.9 inches of snow in early February. As of late last week, Coeur d’Alene has picked up around 1.75 inches of moisture for this month, which is a little above normal. Putting it all together, since Dec. 1, 2015, Coeur d’Alene has received over 13 inches of moisture. That’s quite a bit since the normal for an entire season is 26.77 inches.
I’ve been talking about this very strong El Nino for weeks. The recent heavier than normal precipitation in the northwestern portion of the country is not very typical for this warm water phenomenon. Overall, conditions often turn drier and milder than average. But, we’re starting to see its effects as there hasn’t been any snowfall since Feb. 4.
Thanks to the big December storms, as of early Friday, Coeur d’Alene is currently sitting at 52.8 inches of snowfall for the year and will probably end up between 54 and 60 inches before the season ends, which is below the normal of 69.8 inches. However, don’t be surprised to see a few more flakes by the first week of March and again toward the last week of March as well.
The latest computer models are forecasting this super strong El Nino to fall apart during the spring and summer season. Scientists say that this warm-water phenomenon has already weakened slightly in recent weeks. Despite El Nino losing a little strength, we expect temperatures to be milder than normal for March and April with below normal precipitation for North Idaho and surrounding regions. May and June should see an increase of moisture totals to near-normal levels.
Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) pointed out that the latest computer models are projecting for El Nino to weaken in the coming months and then lead to the possible formation of a new La Nina, the cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event, by late in the year. That would be a quick turn-around from the warmer El Nino to the cooler La Nina.
Keep in mind, predicting the strength and timing of these events is far from an exact science. However, if ocean waters turn much cooler as we get toward the end of 2016, then snowfall totals across North Idaho and the rest of the Inland Northwest would probably be around 10 to 20 percent higher than normal for the 2016-17 season.
Since 2000, we’ve had a number of La Nina events. These occurred in 2000-01, 2007-08, 2010-11 and 2011-12. The one in 2007-08, combined with low sunspot activity, likely contributed to the record snows across our region. Who can forget the 172.9 inches of the white stuff in 2007-08 and 145.6 inches the following season in 2008-09. During another La Nina event, the 2010-11 season had 121.0 inches of snow.
During our heavy snowfall season, scientists say that we had a “moderate” La Nina event. Cliff and I are forecasting a “strong” La Nina event around the early 2020s along with very low sunspot activity. Assuming this happens, it’s quite possible that we could see a winter season with 200 inches of snow or higher in Coeur d’Alene, smashing all previous records. There are other factors involved which determines our snowfall season, but the early signs are pointing to snowier winters in the coming years. We’ll see what happens.
In the meantime, the overall weather pattern is beginning to turn drier and milder than normal. There will, however, be some occasional showers and perhaps a little snow into early March. With the strong El Nino and Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction of an early spring, it’s starting to look like some nice weather in our region later in March. In other words, the chances of an early spring are pretty good.
Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com