We still have an active sunspot cycle

According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA, 2015 was the warmest year in 136 years of record-keeping. Combining land and ocean temperatures, last year was over 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th Century average of about 57.1 degrees Fahrenheit, topping out at 58.62 degrees.

In December of 2015, our planet was 2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal, which also broke the record set in 2014 by more than a half-degree. NOAA says that the Earth has broken monthly heat records 34 times since 2000.

Scientists say that our warm-water phenomenon, El Nino, did play a small role for the warmer temperatures last year. El Nino is now the strongest in history based on the Oceanic Nino Index, which measures the strength of this event.

In addition to the super-strong El Nino, we’re also at the end of the latest solar maxima cycle, Sunspot Cycle 24, which peaked in April of 2014. Our Sun normally goes through a cycle of high and low sunspot activity about every 11 years. Back in the late 2000s, the sun was in a solar minima cycle. It went into a long period of very little sunspot activity, which probably led to some cooling of the earth.

By the way, when we had the low sunspots and a strong La Nina, the abnormal cooling of ocean waters, many parts of the northern U.S., including North Idaho, had all-time record snows. Cliff sees the same pattern redeveloping around 2020.

Earlier this month, there was one day, Feb. 5, when the sunspot numbers climbed close to the peak number in April of 2014, which indicates our Sun is still active. Since that date, sunspot numbers dropped off. The energy from the recent solar maxima could be another reason why Earth’s temperatures are a little higher, but most scientists believe that the bulk of the warming has been induced by the burning of fossil fuels.

Our sun was very active in the mid-to-late 1990s, when global temperatures were rising at a dramatic pace. Many scientists claimed that the high number of sunspots during that time was “unusual.”

Hollywood has produced a few movies that suggests that a super solar flare would literally wipe-out all life on Earth. A solar flare often occurs during a solar maxima cycle and are a sudden flash of brightness that’s observed near the Sun’s surface. They are often accompanied by a coronal mass ejection that sends electrons and other forms of deadly radiation into space.

Our planet’s magnetic field projects us from this radiation, but solar flares can severely damage satellites, power grids or electronics on the Earth’s surface. For example, if a super solar flare made a direct hit on the Earth, it could seriously set the world back many years in terms of technology.

On July 23, 2012, a solar superstorm barely missed Earth. But, on Aug. 4, 1972, a strong solar flare knocked out long-distance telephone communication across Illinois. On March 13, 1989, electric power transmission was disrupted from the Hydro Quebec generating station in Canada that plunged over 6 million people into darkness for 9 hours.

The most spectacular super solar flare was witnessed by England’s foremost solar astronomer, Richard Carrington, on Sept. 1, 1859. He first noticed a huge group of sunspots, then two brilliant beads of blinding white light over the sunspots before they disappeared. Just before dawn the next day, tremendous auroras of red, green and purple erupted across the Earth. The auroras were so brilliant that one could read a newspaper at night. The brilliant colors could also be seen as far south as Cuba and Hawaii, a very rare event. Telegraph operators in Europe and North America were given electric shocks and there were reports of sparks from some of the telegraphs due to the big solar flare.

In terms of our weather, I think we’ve seen the last of the big snows for the season thanks to the effects of the warm El Nino. Most of the moisture that falls should continue to be in the form of rain, but we should see some additional snowfall in the lower elevations between now and early April. The best chance for the white stuff is around the full moon cycle of Feb. 22-29. When the season ends, our total is expected to be a little below the average at around 57 to 60 inches. The normal is 69.8 inches.

Cliff and I still see a pattern of rain and mountain snow through the rest of February. Conditions should turn drier and milder in March and April, which would give us an early spring. We’ve already seen a taste of spring as we had our first 50 degree day last week.

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