This time, Phil just might be right

Last Tuesday, February 2, was Groundhog Day and Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow. On that particular day, the region was between storm systems, but the clouds did manage to hang around a bit longer. According to the legend, if the infamous groundhog does not see his shadow, then spring is expected to come early. By the way, since 1887, Phil has not seen his shadow only 18 times.

For many months we’ve been hearing about the super-strong El Nino pattern in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean. El Nino is the abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures. This particular event has been one of the largest in recorded history and will probably be with us through the spring season.

The drought in the West, including the Inland Pacific Northwest, has been eased thanks to a series of storms from the Pacific. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, our region was in severe to extreme drought for much of the second half of 2015. However, thanks to the big storms that provided about 12 inches of moisture in December and January, the drought has ended across the coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and the Inland Northwest. The latest data has our area in abnormally dry conditions, a big improvement from late last year.

Thanks to the new El Nino pattern, California has seen some much-needed rain and mountain snow. The heaviest amounts of precipitation have fallen across the northern and central portions of the state while Southern California has seen occasional storms. Despite the heavy snows in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and rain in the lower elevations, parts of the central portions of the Golden State are still in “exceptional” drought conditions.

The moisture in California will certainly help the agricultural industry as well as consumer drinking and other watering needs in the short-term, but water tables are still very low and much more moisture is needed to help alleviate the four-plus year drought.

Forecasts for the upcoming spring season have been issued by the National Climate Center as well as other forecasters. Here is what Cliff and I think the spring of 2016 will be like across the Inland Empire.

With the warm El Nino showing no signs of dissipating over at least the next few months, our spring outlook for the Inland Empire is pointing to drier and milder than normal conditions beginning in March, which should translate to an early spring. However, we will see occasional rainfall, but the heavier amounts will likely stay to the south of our region as California is expected to see more moisture.

Until then, the next few days look dry, but more rain and snow is expected to increase across the region late in the week. The rest of February will have occasional rain and snow across our region. The best chance of the white stuff in the lower elevations is expected around the last week of the month.

The ridge of high pressure should start to become more dominant in April and May across the western states. This is the same ridge that has brought the drought conditions to the Far West, especially California, for over the last four-plus years. We’re already starting to see hints of this pattern as conditions turned drier and a bit milder this week. With the high pressure system over us, it will be very cold across the center of the country east of the Rockies. Freezing temperatures are possible all the way down into Dixie and perhaps into northern Florida this week.

The collisions from the frigid temperatures from the north and the warmer air from the south will likely increase the severe weather across the southeastern portions of the country later this winter and the spring season. There were reports of tornadoes in Mississippi and Alabama last week.

By late spring and early summer, we residents of North Idaho should turn a bit wetter than normal as the western high is expected to move eastward into the center of the country. Cliff and I don’t see the torrid and extended dry period like the summer of 2015. We should have many days with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures, but there will also be a few hot days with the possibility of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the late spring and summer of 2016.

For more information, you can go to www.LongRangeWeather.com.