Does the groundhog see an early spring?
After enduring big snows in December and below freezing temperatures for many days during this winter season, many are now asking, “when does spring get here?” Folks here in the Inland Empire have made it clear that they are ready for more sunshine and warmer days. I have to admit, I’m ready too.
Our region has certainly seen enough moisture in the past two months to either end or put a massive dent into the drought pattern across the Northwest. Since Dec. 1, northwestern Coeur d’Alene has picked nearly 12 inches of rain and melted snowfall. That’s well over 40 percent of our seasonal moisture in two months. Thanks to the big moisture totals in December, the 2015 season ended up at 26.44 inches, compared to the normal of 26.77 inches. January is off a good start for 2016 with about 4 inches of moisture as of late last week.
Well, Tuesday is Groundhog Day. The world’s most famous groundhog of all-time, Punxsutawney Phil, the Pennsylvania woodchuck will be making his annual appearance. Each year, he is hauled out of his fake tree stump on Gobbler’s Knob, about 2 miles east of town, every Feb. 2 at precisely 7:25 a.m. to see if he can see his shadow. The town celebrates this event with a festive atmosphere of music and food.
If Phil supposedly catches his shadow, he’s scared back into his den for six more weeks of slumber. The winter season, in turn, will drag on for least another six weeks. If Phil does not see his shadow, then spring is right around the corner. Believe it or not, approximately 90 percent of the time, Phil sees his shadow.
The groundhog receives a lot of media attention at this time of year. There has been a movie based upon this event called “Groundhog Day.” It’s a great feature in case you haven’t seen it and it’s one of our favorite movies. Phil also made an appearance on the Oprah Winfrey Show in 1995. However, there have been cases when Phil has not been popular. For example, last year in 2015, the Merrimack Police Department in New Hampshire issued an arrest warrant for Punxsutawney Phil. They claimed that the groundhog failed to disclose the extreme amounts of snow that would ensue after Groundhog Day.
Like in most examples of weather folklore, there is an ounce of truth in Phil seeing his shadow and therefore predicting six more weeks of winter. Clear skies at this time of year usually mean that a strong cold ridge of high pressure is over the area. There is a definite six-week cycle to high pressure ridges. They often take two weeks to build, two more weeks to peak and two additional weeks to move out of a particular region or zone. Hence, perhaps, six more weeks of winter.
The legend of Groundhog Day could be based upon an old Scottish couplet: “If Candlemas Day is bright and clear, there’ll be two winters in the year.” Candlemas Day was a Christian holiday that celebrated Mary’s ritual purification. They believed that if the sun came out on that particular day, winter would last for six more weeks.
Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow? As this article was written late last week, it looks like the groundhog will likely see his shadow, which points to six more weeks of winter. But, according to the National Climatic Data Center, the beloved groundhog has been correct only 39 percent of the time.
Regardless, the folks here in the Inland Empire are hoping that Phil does not see his shadow. Many have let it be known to me that they don’t want six more weeks of winter.
Whether or not Phil sees his shadow, we’re expecting about another 6-10 inches of snow for the rest of the season across the Coeur d’Alene area. The mountains should pick up at least another foot of the white stuff, which is more good news from what has become a great ski season despite the warm El Nino in the Pacific Ocean.
We think the best chances for snowfall would be in early February and again in late February or early March. Thanks to El Nino, most of the moisture that does fall between now and the end of March should be in the form of rain in the lower elevations.
The upcoming spring of 2015 is expected to start off a bit milder and drier than normal as a high pressure system rebuilds across the West. Moisture totals should start to tilt to above normal levels by late spring as the ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central portions of the country.
Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com