How accurate is Old Farmer's Almanac?

It’s been brought to my attention from a number of weather enthusiasts and readers about the recent prediction from the original Old Farmer’s Almanac. Their winter forecast calls for snowier and milder than normal for us residents in North Idaho and surrounding regions. They also foresee snowy weather for much of the extreme northern U.S. with drier than normal conditions across the rest of the West, most of the central U.S. and parts of the Southeast. This would mean that drought conditions in California will continue.

There is a competing Farmers’ Almanac that is predicting mild and stormy weather for the Northwest for the upcoming winter season. Cliff and I still see snowier than normal conditions across the northern portions of the country, including North Idaho. However, it may be a little colder than average as sea-surface temperatures are cooling down.

I’ve been asked a number of times of my opinion of the Old Farmer’s Almanac and its accuracy. With the new edition recently hitting the newsstands, many have wanted to know if this publication is as “on the money” as their website states an 80 percent accuracy rate. Many forecasters find that number a bit hard to believe and almost impossible to accomplish.

Prior to last year, The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts of heavy snows in the Northeast and colder weather worked out pretty well. But, in 2012, the forecast of a frigid and snowy winter did not happen as that season was the fourth warmest on record. And, the Almanac’s outlook for a cold 2015-16 winter season actually turned out to be much warmer than normal across the country.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac claims to use “complicated” mathematical formulas, sunspots, planetary positions and even tidal patterns to forecast the weather. The publication was first developed in 1792 and continues to provide long-range weather outlooks.

With an increasing need for more accurate long-range weather forecasts, many people tend to rely on their information. I have found the perception of those who follow this publication believe it to be fairly accurate. I had many relatives who were farmers and swore to the Almanac’s accuracy. One could only imagine the conversations that went on, but it was all in good fun.

According to a five-year study conducted in the early 1980s by two research meteorologists, John Walsh and David Allen from the University of Illinois at Urbana, the final results of their study differed little from the mere flip of a coin. They pointed out an approximate 51 percent accuracy for temperature and 52 percent correct as far as precipitation was concerned for the Almanac.

Walsh and Allen used 32 cities, two each, from the 16 various forecast regions of the country used by the Old Farmer’s Almanac. Spokane and Miles City, Mont., made the list.

The study showed that the National Weather Service averaged about a 60 percent accuracy rating in “seasonal” outlooks published in advance. The private long-range prognosticators, including our long-range weather service, believe it or not, received the highest accuracy ratings at near 70 percent.

However, whether one considers their forecasts to be highly accurate or not, you have to give them credit. Their annual forecasts, especially the ones for winter, continue to make headlines and the publication has continued to thrive over the years in the media’s ever-changing environments.

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In terms of our local weather, August ended up drier than normal with only .66 inches of moisture in Coeur d’Alene as the strong ridge of high pressure held on over the West. Most of the precipitation either stayed to our north or to the east over Montana.

Instead of the rain, a number of brushfires broke out over the region over a week ago. As of last Friday, according to the National Interagency Fire Center, there were 36 active large fires burning across much of the West. Nearly 600,000 acres have burned from these blazes alone. The highest number of wildfires as of last Friday was not California or Washington, but in our own state of Idaho. Last Friday, California had six fires, Washington had seven and Idaho reported nine blazes.

Despite the recent outbreak, about 4.3 million acres have “gone up in smoke” from Jan. 1 through Aug. 26 across the U.S. The figure was much higher for the same time in 2015 as around 7.6 million acres burned. Last year, U.S. wildfires scorched a record 10.12 million acres.

Although we had some days with smoke in our region, the overall summer season seemed to be a pretty good one for 2016. My confidence for early September moisture is still good as the long-range computer models are now showing an increasing chance of rain developing during the normally wet “new moon” lunar cycle of Sept. 1-8.

The middle of September should also bring more showers. October may be drier than normal, but things should start to become more active with rain and perhaps, even some snow starting in early to mid November.

Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com