Money strangling blockbuster output
As another summer blockbuster season fumbles to a close, the business of moviemaking seems more depressing than ever before.
Even after “Suicide Squad” broke the box office record for August opening weekend, there was skepticism everywhere the movie could still fail to turn a profit (a 67 percent second weekend drop certainly didn’t help).
From an outsider perspective, the idea that “Suicide Squad” won’t make money is somewhat ridiculous. But “industry insiders” argue these blockbusters simply cost too much money to make nowadays, and studios are spending even more on marketing them.
A recent Hollywood Reporter story claimed “Suicide Squad” needs to make at least $800 million in global box office in order to profit. Similar stories have come out about “Star Trek Beyond” and the reboot of “Ghostbusters.” Both opened decently ($59 million for “Beyond,” $46 million for “Ghostbusters”) but underperformed in the long run. Weighed down by hefty production budgets ($185 million for “Beyond,” $144 million for “Ghostbusters”) and pricey advertising campaigns, the same “insiders” commenting on the fate of “Suicide Squad” are also spelling doom for future Enterprise and ghoul hunting adventures.
The Hollywood Reporter also predicted “Ghostbusters” would lose about $70 million, though the studio immediately disputed the
number. That’s the tricky thing about Hollywood. From the outside, nobody really knows for sure how the money works. When the most reliable sources are unnamed insiders, it’s hard to take any of these numbers at face value.
In the case of “Ghostbusters,” as well as other summer 2016 underperformers (“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows,” “Alice Through the Looking Glass,” “Warcraft,” etc.) there are many factors playing into the path to profitability. “Ghostbusters” has numerous business partnerships and cross-promotions, not to mention sustained merchandise sales dating back to the first movie in 1984. Point being, the franchise makes money, even if the movie doesn’t pull its full weight.
With “Ninja Turtles,” the studio is banking on an overabundance of merchandise to offset some of the box office losses. “Warcraft” always seemed like a commercial for the gaming franchise, and Disney, of all companies, will surely find some way to squeeze dollars out of “Through the Looking Glass.” If not, they have Johnny Depp locked in a dungeon ready to make about five more “Pirates of the Caribbean” movies.
As long as money can be made, the movies themselves will continue to be developed as commodities rather than storytelling opportunities. While it’s disappointing to see a good movie like “Star Trek Beyond” fail to reach the box office heights of its franchise predecessors, it’s more depressing to see the wrong way validated - for example the profit-minded approach to “Suicide Squad.”
As was widely reported on the eve of its release, Warner Bros. recut and repurposed much of the original “Suicide Squad” film to better match the tone of a well-received trailer (commercial). They then had the company that cut the trailer (a marketing company) take over the creative editing on the film itself.
The movie is mostly garbage, in large part because it feels like a serious movie railroaded by a chirpy marketing campaign. The reviews were bad, but people showed up on opening weekend anyway. It will make the $800 million, and whether or not it’s the actual break even number, Warner Bros. will turn a profit and have no problem spending hundreds of millions of dollars on another one. It will only need to be marginally better next time in order to advertise it as “the ‘Suicide Squad’ you wanted the first time.”
The other major box office story of summer 2016 involves the overabundance of sequels and their diminishing returns at the box office. The press narrative implies people are simply tired of rehashed ideas. That’s certainly true, but it will never stop studios from making sequels.
No matter how many blog posts or Hollywood Reporter doom-and-gloom-icles are written, Hollywood will always bank on the power of the franchise. A three-month trend doesn’t supersede a long understood truth — familiarity is the only thing you can count on in a dying industry.
Blockbuster filmmaking, believe it or not, is dying, albeit slower than other forms of media (newsprint!). Audiences now have so many ways to consume entertainment, the movie theater experience will never be as well-attended as it once was. The grosses may be bigger, but so are the budgets and costs for admission. There will be a tipping point when the box office won’t justify the cost of making the movies.
It isn’t happening quite yet. And some franchises, like “Star Wars,” will never stop making money. However, there may be a day soon where you don’t get “Suicide Squad 4” or “Ice Age 18.” Some of us are ready today.
Tyler Wilson can be reached at twilson@cdapress.com