More weather extremes across North America
I’ve received a number of compliments about our weather pattern last week. Many were enjoying the abundance of sunshine and very warm temperatures as highs climbed into the 70s late last week. In Coeur d’Alene, the mercury hit 74 degrees on Thursday and a near-record 79 on Friday and 76 on Saturday. Our normal high during that time was 56 degrees. Record highs were reported in central Washington with a few stations passing the 80 degree mark.
I’m also getting gardening questions on whether we could see freezing temperatures in the coming weeks. Right now, the average low temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s, so we could still see readings drop to those levels. If you do plant a garden or have outdoor plants, keep a watch on the forecast and make sure they are covered if freezing temperatures are on the horizon.
The first part of April was a big contrast to the conditions in March. Last month, we ended up at 5.09 inches of moisture, compared to the normal of 1.94 inches. Parts of the Columbia Basin in Washington reported their wettest March in history.
However, the heavier than normal precipitation in the Northwest doesn’t compare to the unbelievable rainfall in the South last month. Strong thunderstorms from March 8-11 dropped a whopping 20.66 inches of rain on Monroe, La. The average for Monroe for an entire season is 53.71 inches. A station to the southeast of Monroe had close to 27 inches of rain in less than a week during the second week of March. That’s what Coeur d’Alene normally receives in an entire season as our normal is 26.77 inches.
In terms of temperature, according to NOAA, the U.S. had its mildest winter in U.S. history. A very strong El Nino, the warmer than normal sea-surface temperature pattern, likely contributed to the rise in temperature. For March of 2016, it was the fourth warmest in history dating back to 1895. The Lower 48 states, plus Alaska, were much milder than normal. In fact, the southeastern portion of Alaska reported temperatures in the low 70s on the last day of March. They usually don’t see readings that warm until the late spring or summer.
Speaking of El Nino, there is still plenty of warm water across the eastern Pacific Ocean as well as the Indian Ocean. Ocean temperatures are also higher than average along the U.S. East Coast. Scientists say that the once very strong El Nino will continue to weaken over the next few months. Many computer forecast models say that this warm water phenomenon will be gone later this summer and could be replaced by the cooler La Nina late this year. This is one reason why I think we’ll see more snow in the 2016-17 season.
While recent conditions have been outstanding here in the Inland Northwest, early spring snows have been reported on the other side of the country. Record snowfalls were seen in western New York early last week. Record cold was felt across southern and northeastern Ontario in Canada as lows dropped down to 10 degrees. These temperatures were more typical of a mid-winter pattern.
The first part of April here in Coeur d’Alene and surrounding areas was certainly much drier and warmer than normal. We should start to see an increase in moisture over the second half of this month. By the time April comes to an end, we should end up close to the normal of 1.77 inches. Temperatures will likely be cooler over the next few weeks, but I do see a brief period of dry and warm weather toward the end of next week.
May looks more “normal” in terms of precipitation, but temperatures are expected to climb to slightly above normal levels. It’s also possible that we could have temperatures near 80 degrees around the second week of May. Then, we have occasional showers and thunderstorms into early June. There should also be plenty of sunshine and warm afternoon for the summer of 2016. Cliff and I don’t see a return to the drought conditions of 2015 here in the Northwest as the big high pressure system is expected to move over the center of the country later this spring and summer season. This would mean hot and dry conditions for that part of the country which would stress soybeans, corn and other crops.
Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com