Are El Nino rains starting to arrive in California?

On Tuesday, Sept. 15, moisture from the tropical Pacific dumped over 2.4 inches of rain across the Los Angeles area. It was the second wettest September day in history in downtown Los Angeles. Parts of San Bernardino County to the north of Los Angeles picked up over five inches of rain, a new record. There were also some showers in extreme Northern California in mid September and in early October. Residents cheered the rainfall, but there is still a long way to go before ending the massive drought.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, it’s going to take at least double the normal rainfall this season to help California start to get out of their drought situation. Moisture is desperately needed across the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys as water tables have been seriously depleted to help with farming and other water needs. The Central Valley of California is so dry that wells are drying up. Water is being trucked in and people are storing water in bottles in their homes. Some are leaving their properties after living in them for decades. So far, there is no sign of any big El Nino rains in the central part of California.

There have been years that El Ninos have brought dry conditions instead of above-normal moisture to the Golden State. But, there have been devastating floods to the Southern California region during the big El Nino years of 1982-83 and 1997-98.

Although heavy rainfall is needed across the Golden State, it may be too warm for a significant snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. A recent study stated that the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains “shrank to the lowest in 500 years in 2015.” The average snowpack over the spring season was only a mere 5 percent of the average when measured on April 1. In the mountains near Lake Tahoe, some places had no snow whatsoever.

Data was based upon tree rings of blue oak trees. After running the numbers multiple times, researchers of this study stated that the Sierra Nevada snowpack has not been so low since the Middle Ages. Seasonal snow in the mountains is very important for replenishing the state’s surface water that includes rivers and reservoirs, according to the study from the University of Arizona.

In 2014, it seemed that California was going to at least put a massive ‘dent’ into their drought. Record rains fell in late 2014 across the Golden State before “shutting off like a faucet” in January of 2015. Many stations in California did not receive a drop of rain in one of their normally wet months. Downtown San Francisco was one of those stations while Sacramento only picked up 0.01 inches of moisture.

The low snowpack and continued drought led to a mandate of a 25 percent reduction in urban water use across California. Lawns literally turned brown and water deliveries to farmers were cut severely.

The rainfall season seems to be getting off to a good start in Southern California. There were record rains in July and again in mid September. There also seems to be hope for a healthy rainy season across much of the Golden State, but only time will tell.

In our part of the country, the U.S. Drought Monitor still has ‘extreme’ drought conditions across the Inland Northwest. Cliff tells me that the period from June 2 until now has been the driest in recorded history. Since that date, we’ve only received 1.29 inches of rain, compared to the normal of about 5 inches. Very dry places like Cairo, Egypt, Los Angeles, California and Phoenix, Arizona have actually received more moisture than Coeur d’Alene since June 2.

Conditions are also extremely dry in the area forests. We’ve been told that one can hear the cracking of needles and branches from hikers as much as 50 yards away. Many are concerned that a single spark could set off a blaze in these areas. Until we get some rainfall, please be careful.

Speaking of rainfall, our next best chance of any ‘decent’ precipitation would be around the normally wet ‘new moon’ lunar phase of October 13-20. Some of the long-range computer models do indicate an increasing chance of precipitation by Sunday, Oct. 11, assuming the big high pressure system flattens out a bit.

Cliff and I still believe that the fall season will have near to below normal precipitation, thanks to the strong El Nino. The National Weather Service forecasts warmer and drier than normal through the end of this year across much of the northwestern U.S. Stay tuned.

Randy Mann can be reached at randy@longrangeweather.com