Is 'El Nino' back?

We've been asked to update the sea-surface temperature event since NOAA declared that we have a new 'El Nino' in the waters of the Pacific Ocean near the International Date Line. I decided to write this updated feature to give Cliff more time to finish his new book, "Weather and Bible Prophecy, What Was ... What Is ... And What's To Come" (www.WeatherProphecy.com).

Earlier this month, according to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we now have a new 'El Nino,' the abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures along the Equatorial regions. However, the Australian scientists say that current data points to a 'La Nada,' the in-between warmer El Nino and cooler La Nina.

NOAA says that we have a very weak El Nino event due to the recent warming of ocean temperatures near the International Date Line. This type of pattern is very unusual as we typically see the warming of sea-surface temperatures near the West Coast of South America and westward along the Equator. Right now, ocean temperatures in that region are about 'normal,' which was why we've been talking about a 'La Nada' in recent months.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology still says that we're in the La Nada pattern, but did upgrade its outlook of an El Nino event from "neutral" to "watch." Their forecasts state there is a 50 percent chance of another El Nino forming later this year. Japanese scientists say it's a "neutral cycle." Cliff and I go along with the Australian and Japanese forecasters. But, there is also a large area of warmer ocean temperatures extending from the International Date Line to the U.S. West Coast. This is likely one reason why we've had far less snow than normal in our part of the country.

Unfortunately, this new pattern should have little effect on California's drought situation as the strong ridge of high pressure continues to dominate. The Golden State should receive some much-needed moisture later this month, but it will be the case of "too little, too late." Many stations are now reporting precipitation totals below normal, especially in the southern part of the state. We'll likely hear about more water restrictions in the coming months.

California needs much above normal rainfall for at least the next several years to put a huge dent into the drought pattern. Unfortunately, many stations are reporting precipitation totals at near to below normal levels once again. Water will likely become "critical" for many locations in the coming months despite forecasts of showers in early March.

Very little, if any, moisture is expected in drought-ravaged Southern California. Snowpacks in the Sierra Nevada mountains are at one of the lowest levels in history around 15 to 20 percent.

The U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show severe drought conditions across much of California, parts of the Southwest and eastward into the southern Great Plains. Extreme drought conditions are seen across western and central Oklahoma, northern Texas as well as central California.

It's also very possible that the high pressure ridge in the West will move eastward into the Great Plains later in the spring and summer bringing much hotter and drier weather to that area where drought conditions are an issue as well.

OUR SUN SEEMS TO BE HEADING OUT OF ITS 'MAXIMA' PHASE

By Meteorologist Randy Mann

It's been over 73 months since this current "maxima" Solar Cycle 24 began. From late December 2008 into late 2014, we've seen moderate solar flares, but this cycle has been weaker since the last one in the late 1990s.

On Jan. 30, sunspot numbers were at 193, an impressive number. Since then, sunspot numbers have been dropping off to an average of less than 50 solar storms. Our sun seems to be finally heading out of its "maxima" cycle and it's probably going to be later this year or perhaps in 2016 when this phase has completed.

During the 1990s, when the Earth's temperature peaked, the sun was cranking out an average of over 200 sunspots per day. This particular "maxima" has averaged less than 100.

As we head toward the late 2010s to early 2020s, a strong 800-year solar cycle is expected to return and provide an extended, extremely low period of sunspot activity. If this happens, there is the possibility of much heavier snowfalls across much of the northern U.S. that would be more severe than the big snow year in 2007-08. The very low sunspot activity, combined with a possible strong cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature pattern could lead to some very tough winters.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

By Climatologist Cliff Harris

A springlike 71 degrees on Tuesday, March 10, not only smashed the previous record high for the date set in 1972 of 63 degrees by an amazing 8 degrees, it marked the earliest occurrence of 70 degree plus readings in the area ever dating back to the inception of local weather record-keeping in 1895 some 120 years ago.

We predicted an early spring this year for our part of the country, but it appears that 2015 will go into the record books as the mildest ever during the period from Feb. 2, when the snows suddenly ended for the season after a snowy January, to the date of the writing of this column on Friday, March 13. During this six-week period, temperatures in Coeur d'Alene averaged an incredible 9 degrees above normal in town, the opposite 'extreme' of the bitterly cold temperatures and record snows seen in Boston and most of the rest of the winter-weary Northeast.

February 2015 in Boston was the city's coldest February on record and the snowiest single month ever dating back nearly 400 years to the days of the Pilgrims. There were three blizzards in February in Boston that each dumped more than a 'foot' of snow on Beantown.

We've basically had a normal wintry January and springlike conditions the rest of the winter of 2014-15, thanks, at least in part, to the above normal sea-surface temperatures right along the West Coast. As mentioned earlier, NOAA recently declared that a weak 'El Nino' has returned, but it may also be on its 'last legs.'

Not only has it been unusually mild this winter, but it's also been exceptionally dry with 'rare' brush fires in the region. But, that could change soon, as Randy Mann and I see increasing rains and cooler temperatures ahead in the next several weeks. Stay tuned.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com