2015 should be an 'active' thunderstorm year

The National Weather Service estimates that every year there are approximately 100,000 thunderstorms in the U.S. About one-tenth, or 10,000 of these thunderstorms, are quite severe accompanied by torrential downpours, large-sized, crop-destroying hail and often deadly tornadic activity.

Around the rest of the world, there are more than 40,000 thunderstorms forming every day. Nearly 1,800 of these violent storms occur at any given hour on the planet. Let's do the math. This works out to 16 million thunderstorms a year on a global scale. That's a lot of 'thunderboomers!'

In the U.S. alone, lightning kills dozens of people each year and causes thousands of fires, especially in the tinder-dry forests of the Far West.

Large hailstones cause at least $1 billion a year in property damage, plus widespread crop losses in wheat and other grains.

Hurricane-force straight-line winds can reach velocities exceeding 100 miles per hour or more. Downburst winds cause plane crashes.

'Flash floods,' associated with severe thunderstorms, cause rivers to overflow their banks and often result in human and livestock deaths.

Tornadoes that are spawned by violent thunderstorms kill dozens of people every year, especially in the southern Great Plains and the Deep South, as we've seen in recent years in Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Arkansas and Missouri.

The 'key' to the size and power of a particular thunderstorm, according to climate scientists, lies in the strength of the UP and DOWN motions of its air flows that likewise produce large-size hail, strong wind gusts and torrential rains. 'Supercells' containing intense updrafts can lead to a series of deadly tornadoes.

We're fortunate that we usually have only a dozen or so days, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours, with thunderstorm activity in North Idaho each year. There were 13 days with thunderstorms in 2014 in Coeur d'Alene at my station on Player Drive. Some of these storms produced hail, winds exceeding 40 miles per hour and torrential downpours, usually lasting less than 20 minutes.

But, due to the fact that I see a very STORMY spring and early summer period in our part of the country, the opposite 'extreme' from the quiet winter of 2014-15 in the region, we may end up with as many as 15 to 20 days between mid April and mid September with thunderstorms. Fortunately, only a few of these storms will cause any major damage resulting from high winds, downed trees or lowland flooding. Besides, we'll need the moisture after the recent dry and snowless period.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

While it's still possible that we could see a few flurries of snow sometime between now and early April, it certainly appears that we've enjoyed one of the earliest arrivals in the Inland Northwest of the spring season in recorded history, at least since the inception of local weather record-keeping in 1895.

High temperatures in recent days have soared into the balmy upper 50s, 60s and even the 70s in southern Oregon and northern California, where people are wearing shorts and spring flowers are blooming far ahead of schedule. Many trees are already "leafing out" in the western U.S. Even the winter-blasted areas east of the Rockies are warming up quickly in early March.

I still see cooler and wetter weather pushing into our part of the country during the six-week span from mid to late March into early May.

According to NOAA, we now have a new 'El Nino,' the abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures. We've been in a 'La Nada,' the in-between the warmer El Nino and the cooler La Nina. But, the recent warming of ocean waters near the International Date Line and along the Equator has prompted NOAA to say that we now have a very weak El Nino event. This is very unusual as we typically see the warming near the West Coast of South America and westward along the Equator. Right now, ocean temperatures in that region are "normal," which was why we've been talking about a 'La Nada.'

The Australian scientists do not agree with NOAA as they are showing less confidence that an El Nino event has arrived. However, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology did upgrade their status this from "neutral" to "watch" for this warm water phenomenon, but it's still two levels down in their alert system from an official declaration of a new El Nino. We would go along with that assessment. Japanese scientists say it's a "neutral ENSO (cycle)."

Unfortunately, this new pattern should have little effect on California's drought situation as the strong ridge of high pressure continues to dominate. The Golden State should receive some much-needed moisture later this month, but it will be the case of "too little, too late." In fact, it's very possible that the high pressure ridge will move to the east into the Great Plains later in the spring and summer bringing much hotter and drier weather to that area.

It also appears that water temperatures are cooling off right along the Oregon and Washington coastline. It's been hurting turtles and sea lions to the point that they are being transferred to warmer waters along the California coast.

Randy Mann will be updating both the sea-surface and solar data and the relating charts in next Mondays 'Gems' column while I finish my new book "Weather And Bible Prophecy," which should be available around Easter. We'll have updated details on our website, www.LongRangeWeather.com as to how to order a copy of the book, plus updated spring weather forecasts for the entire country.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com