El Nino should be with us through at least the fall

Most of us have heard of this new El Nino, the warmer than normal sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon began in March and continues to strengthen as we head into the summer season. As of mid June, it appears we have a "moderate" event, but may become a very strong El Nino later this summer or fall.

Based on the long-term forecast models, scientists believe that this new El Nino will be fairly strong with an 90 percent chance it will be with us through the fall season and about an 85 percent chance El Nino will be influencing global weather patterns during the winter of 2015-16.

Warmer sea-surface temperatures extend from the West Coast of South America westward along the Equator. The latest information shows much warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures near the West Coast of South America. Readings are as much as 4-5 degrees above normal levels. The average along the Equator, where the water is also very warm, is about 1-3 degrees above normal.

As El Nino continues to strengthen, forecasters believe this could be one of the strongest in several decades. According to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, there hasn't been as much warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean since the big El Nino event in 1997-98, which was the strongest in recorded history.

In addition to the rapid warming of ocean waters along the Equator, there are also pools of expanding warm waters extending northward along the U.S. West Coast and into the Gulf of Alaska. As we've mentioned in many articles, California has been devastated by an historic drought in the last 4 years. Scientists blame this dryness, at least in part, on the big "blob" of warmer waters off the U.S. West Coast. They believe that the warm waters heats the air above it, intensifying the high pressure ridge over western North America, providing dry and warm weather to the east and driving the flooding rains to the south-central Great Plains during the spring season.

Drought has also been a recent problem in Southeast Asia which produces a number of agricultural commodities, including coffee. Vietnam has been hit by extreme dryness which has been hurting the production of coffee and rice.

However, during the summer season, the western high pressure ridge will often expand and intensify. This may lead to much hotter and drier conditions in the western Great Plains and possibly eastward into the Midwest in July and August.

El Nino often has a major impact on Australia's weather and crop production. The warmer waters are expected to reduce Australia's wheat-production outlook for the 2015-16 season. During El Nino years, Australia normally turns much drier which can lead to disastrous fire seasons.

This new warm water phenomenon will probably be more noticeable during the winter season. The southern portions of the country will likely be wetter than normal with snow droughts in the northern U.S. During most El Nino events, especially the strong ones, California receives much heavier than normal rainfall. Based on the current forecasts, the Golden State may see "flooding rains" this upcoming winter season, a pattern similar to one recently in Oklahoma and Texas when big floods in that region of the country ended a decade-long drought in a matter of weeks. Remember, long droughts are often broken by floods, especially in California.

Historically, El Nino usually reduces the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters. This season the number of named storms are likely be less than the normal 11 systems. However, there have been hurricanes, and a few strong ones, during an El Nino year. During this pattern, there is more "wind shear" in the region. With wind shear, the speed and direction of the wind changes between different altitudes which often inhibits the hurricane formation. But, we've already seen two named storms since the season began on June 1 with Bill forming this week in the Gulf of Mexico rather in the Atlantic Ocean regions.

There are also above normal sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. It's possible that more tropical storms or hurricanes could develop in this region in the coming months that may threaten both the Gulf Coast and the southeastern Atlantic. Tropical Storm Bill brought more flooding rains to Texas, Oklahoma and points east this past week.

OUR SUN IS STILL ACTIVE, BUT HEADING TOWARD A MINIMA CYCLE

By Meteorologist Randy Mann

Our sun seems to be in the current 'maxima' Solar Cycle 24. It began in January of 2008 and is the 24th cycle since 1755, when Mankind started recording solar activity.

During this maxima cycle, we've seen moderate solar flares, including the most recent one last May. However, this cycle has been weaker since the last one in the late 1990s.

Recent sunspot numbers have climbed in earlier this month. On June 7, sunspot numbers were at 136 after dropping to 11 on May 28. With the recent activity, our sun is probably going to be in this maxima phase until at least later this year or perhaps in 2016 when this cycle has finally completed.

During the 1990s, the sun was cranking out an average of over 200 sunspots per day. This particular 'maxima' has averaged less than 100.

As we head toward the late 2010s to early 2020s, a strong 800-year solar cycle is expected to return and, according to some solar scientists, provide an extended, extremely low period of sunspot activity.

If this happens, there is the possibility of much heavier snowfalls across much of the northern U.S. that would be more severe than the big snow year in 2007-08. The very low sunspot activity, combined with a possible strong cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature pattern could lead to some very tough winters here in the Inland Northwest.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

According to the latest mid June Palmer Drought Index, we residents of the Inland Northwest are locked in a moderate to severe drought that’s worsening by the day. We haven’t had a drop of rain in Coeur d’Alene in nearly three weeks, ever since the record 2-inch plus downpours on June 1-2 in town. It seems it’s either ‘feast’ or ‘famine,’ weatherwise and otherwise in this prolonged cycle of wide ‘extremes’ in every arena of life.

In this El Nino-enhanced warm and dry cycle, it’s highly unlikely that we will see much moisture, except for scattered thunderstorms, mostly over the nearby mountains, this expected hot and dry summer of 2015 across the region due to a stationary high pressure ridge.

My forecast remains the same, as was featured in Sunday’s paper, for this weekend’s Ironman event. It should be mostly sunny, with scorching temperatures of 95 to 100 degrees-plus, which would make this Ironman the hottest on record. Not exactly great conditions for running and biking, but nicer than usual for the swimming portion of the event.

It’s my climatological opinion that we should be conserving water, not just in drought-parched California and the rest of the Far West, but locally as well in North Idaho. Water is a precious commodity more valuable than gold or oil. It saddens me to see water wasted anywhere on this water-short planet, especially here at home where some continue to water roads and sidewalks.

Next week in ‘Gems,’ I’ll update the worst problem that Mankind faces in the early 21st Century, the drying up of most of the world’s largest groundwater basins, the dwindling aquifer systems. Stay tuned.

By the way, I want to wish Randy Mann a Happy 52nd Birthday!

SPECIAL NOTE: CLIFF’S BOOK SIGNING

On Friday, July 10, there will be a book signing of Cliff’s book, “Weather and Bible Prophecy” at the Well Read Moose in Riverstone. Cliff will be signing his new book from 5:30 to 7:30 p.m.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com