Predictions for Oscar Gold

It's "Birdman" vs. "Boyhood" at Sunday's Academy Awards, and the uncertainty in the Best Picture race will have implications throughout the evening.

Translation: My predictions this year could be really good or really bad. Based on the various Guild awards and the expertise of people who care way more about the awards than I do, here is what the race looks like at this point:

Best Picture

In late December, Richard Linklater's "Boyhood" became the surprise frontrunner, riding an unprecedented string of critic's awards. But in the last few weeks, it's been all about "Birdman," which has claimed important precursor victories at the Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild and Directors Guild ceremonies.

"Birdman," about a former Hollywood star hoping to reclaim his love of acting on stage, is an actor-friendly story about the art of moviemaking and the spirit of performance. That message speaks to an Academy membership of moviemakers and performers.

The most logical choice then is "Birdman," but the overwhelmingly beloved "Boyhood" could still score with the Academy's preferential ballot (voters rank all eight nominees and... complicated math ensues). "Birdman" is probably the more divisive movie of the two, meaning many voters could rank it lower on ballots where "Boyhood" could sweep in on a wave of slot two or three votes.

As for the other nominees, box office juggernaut "American Sniper" probably runs in the four position, just behind "The Grand Budapest Hotel," which will be awarded in several other categories. "The Imitation Game," armed with the power of awards-hustler Harvey Weinstein, won't be much of a factor, and neither will "Selma," "Whiplash" or "The Theory of Everything."

I liked "Birdman quite a bit, but "Boyhood" is so obviously the Best Picture of the year. Sadly, I think it will lose on Oscar night. Good thing I stopped taking the Academy Awards seriously years ago... probably when "Saving Private Ryan" lost back in 1998.

Director

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu won the Directors Guild, so the safe bet is the "Birdman" director. Many pundits believe the Picture-Director race will be a split with "Boyhood." Richard Linklater could win here and lose Picture, or it could work the other way around. Again, safest bet says "Birdman" in both, but I'll be happily wrong if "Boyhood" wins one of these.

With so much sudden love for "Birdman," you'd think Michael Keaton would remain the frontrunner in the category. Eddie Redmayne from "The Theory of Everything" has the edge though, thanks to Screen Actors Guild and British Academy Award wins. It's hard to get too upset since three better performances weren't even nominated - Ralph Fiennes in "Grand Budapest," Jake Gyllenhaal in "Nightcrawler" and David Oyelowo of "Selma."

Actress

Frequent nominee Julianne Moore has a lock on this for her performance in "Still Alice." She's overdue.

Supporting Actor

Easiest category to call: J.K. Simmons of "Whiplash" has won every award this season.

Supporting Actress

Even if "Boyhood" misses in the top categories, Patricia Arquette will win this prize for her unshowy and anchoring presence in the film.

Original Screenplay

Given its string of awards with Hollywood's production and technical guilds, "The Grand Budapest Hotel" might win the most Oscars on Sunday, and director Wes Anderson could claim a nice consolation prize here. Watch out for "Birdman" or "Boyhood" as potential spoilers.

Adapted Screenplay

"The Imitation Game" won the Writers Guild award for this category, but many see "Whiplash" as a potential spoiler. "Whiplash" wasn't in the Adapted Screenplay category at the WGA, so this is the first time the two are competing. Tell me - Why wasn't "Gone Girl" nominated?

Cinematography

Everything in "Birdman" is made to look like a single, continuous shot, and Hollywood folk are impressed by that sort of thing.

Editing

The compiling of footage over 12 years will be gimmick enough for "Boyhood" to win. "Whiplash" is the spoiler, mostly because its editing makes jazz drumming look like hand-to-hand combat.

Production Design

The very beautiful and very deserving "Grand Budapest Hotel." Let's save some space and also list the film as the probable winner for the Costuming and Makeup categories.

Original Score

"Grand Budapest" could win here too, but "The Theory of Everything" has the precursor wins on its side.

Original Song

Congratulations, "Selma." This win for "Glory" is your official consolation prize.

Sound Mixing and Sound Editing

Eesh, these sound categories are always a little tough. I think both will go to "American Sniper," just because voters probably believe it should win something. Many "Oscar experts" are saying "Whiplash" for Sound Editing, so feel free to choose your own path.

Visual Effects

"Interstellar" gets a prize, unless "Dawn/Rise of the Planet of the Apes" motion captures the award away from them.

Animated Feature

"How to Train Your Dragon 2" will win. Tell me again - Why wasn't "The Lego Movie" nominated?

Documentary Feature

Edward Snowden doc "Citizenfour" is your most popular bet. Tell me one more time - Why wasn't "Life Itself" nominated?

Foreign Language Film

The gorgeous black-and-white drama "Ida" is the frontrunner. It's on Netflix Instant and well worth your time.

The Dreaded Shorts Categories

Most of the experts are in agreement on these, which means probably none of them will win. Nevertheless, your safe choices are "Feast" for Animated Short, "The Phone Call" for Live Action Short, and "Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1" for Documentary Short.

Tyler Wilson can be reached at twilson@cdapress.com. Tyler and his wife, Angela, run down their personal favorite movies of 2014 in a two-part podcast at www.NorthwestPodcasts.com.