'El Nino' has faded away, which is not good news for California

The residents of California were hoping for at least a weak to moderate warm El Nino event for the winter of 2014-15. An El Nino is the abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures along the Equatorial regions.

Late last year, ocean temperatures in that region were about a degree warmer than normal. Flooding rains were reported in the Golden State in November and into December that gave hope to putting a big dent into the massive three-year drought.

But, El Nino started to fall apart early this year and the rainfall across the Golden State has practically "shut off." As of Friday, Feb. 6, Sacramento, Calif., has received 10.38 inches of rainfall, right at normal. Unfortunately, this region needs at least double that amount to break one of the most intense drought patterns in the state's recorded history. However, there was some good news as soaking rains were falling on Friday and forecast to continue into today from Sacramento northward. Every drop helps, but it's not enough to break the drought and, unfortunately, it will be turning drier again this week until more rain arrives in about 10 days from now.

To the south, Los Angeles is now below normal for seasonal rainfall. The airport in Southern California has only received 5.95 inches of moisture, compared to a normal of about 7 inches. Time is running out for precious rainfall as the wet season is starting to wind down. If this part of the country doesn't receive much moisture between now and mid April, then water supplies may become "dangerously low."

The strong ridge of high pressure did bring the Golden State one of the driest Januarys on record. This is the time of year when this state relies on Pacific storms as the late spring, summer and fall season are typically rain free. The state's driest January ever recorded was in 1984 when only .33 inches of moisture fell. Many reservoirs are about 60 percent of normal in the northern part of California, but much lower to the south. Many farmers may not receive water shipments, which will ultimately lead to higher fruit and vegetable prices.

The latest sea-surface temperature data indicates that ocean waters near the Equator are still cooling down. Right along the South American coastline, readings are actually near to slightly below normal levels with larger pools of cooler than normal waters to the south. What once looked like a solid region of warmer waters along the Equator, now looks like a La Nada, the in-between warmer El Nino and the cooler La Nina.

But, there is still a tremendous amount of warm sea-surface temperatures right along the U.S. West Coast into the Gulf of Alaska. This may be why our region is having near to above normal moisture totals and more rain than snow as the warmer waters off the West Coast are moderating the Pacific storms that do manage to make it into the Inland Empire.

Australian scientists say that El Nino is gone and that we'll be in a "La Nada," at least into the fall season. In fact, we may be talking about a new cooler "La Nina" by the end of 2015. That would be a quick turnaround, but in this pattern of "extremes," anything is possible. Also, if we indeed see a new La Nina pattern, snowfall totals for the following winter season would be much higher in our part of the country with less in New England.

In terms of the central U.S., the chance of additional colder weather are higher, along with more snow, especially north of I-80, due to the cooler ocean temperatures from now through at least the middle of March. As high pressure, a series of Arctic invasions are due for the central U.S. bringing this part of the country much colder than normal weather and record snowfalls in the Northeast, particularly in the Boston area.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

By Climatologist Cliff Harris

As I've said for many years, we are in a long-term cycle of WIDE EXTREMES on a global scale, including here in the U.S.

For example, the city of Boston may break its all-time snowfall mark for a single winter season later this month at the same time we're seeing April-like weather locally in North Idaho.

As I wrote this update early Friday, Feb. 6, the mercury stood at 52 degrees on Player Drive. Except for some remaining, quickly melting, snowbanks along the road, our snow is gone. The grass is actually beginning to 'green up' a bit. It seems that spring is here weeks ahead of schedule. Randy and I predicted an "early spring," but this is ridiculous. This morning, it was raining in the mountains at 6,000 feet.

We can credit a warm 'PINEAPPLE CONNECTION' from Hawaii for our unusually mild weather of late. But, I still see colder temperatures returning with the chance of several inches of snow, by mid to late February into early March, so don't take those snow tires off just yet.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com