Today is Groundhog Day; will we see an early spring?

Many people in the blizzard-wracked areas of New England are asking, "when does spring get here?" Well, today is Ground-hog Day. The world's most famous groundhog of all time, Punxsutawney Phil, the Pennsylvania woodchuck, will be making his annual appearance. Each year, he is hauled out of his fake tree stump on Gobbler's Knob, about 2 miles east of town, every Feb. 2 at precisely 7:25 a.m. to see if he can see his shadow. The town celebrates this event with a festive atmosphere of music, food and a lot of 'spirits.'

If Phil supposedly catches his shadow, he's scared back into his den for six more weeks of slumber. The winter season, in turn, will drag on for at least another six weeks. If Phil does not see his shadow, then spring is right around the corner. Believe it or not, approximately 90 percent of the time, Phil sees his shadow. This year should be no exception.

I wrote this article on Friday, Jan. 30. At that time, the extended outlook called for cold temperatures and partly cloudy skies on Monday morning, Feb. 2, in Punxsutawney, Pa. Hence, Phil would most likely see his shadow predicting six more weeks of winter, at least in his part of the country.

Like most examples of weather folklore, there is an 'ounce of truth' in Phil seeing his shadow and therefore predicting six more weeks of winter. Clear skies at this time of year usually means that a strong cold ridge of high pressure is over the area. There is a definite six-week cycle to high pressure ridges. They often take two weeks to build, two more weeks to peak and two additional weeks to move out of a particular region or zone. Thus, perhaps, six more weeks of winter.

The legend of Groundhog Day is based on an old Scottish couplet: "If Candlemas Day is bright and clear, there'll be two winters in the year." Candlemas Day was a Christian holiday that celebrated Mary's ritual purification. They believed that if the sun came out on that particular day, winter would last for six more weeks.

What about our North Idaho groundhogs, or as many call them, 'Woodchucks.' What are they predicting about the weather patterns across the Inland Northwest between now and the official start of the spring season on March 20 at 3:45 p.m.?

Well, our groundhogs are still fast asleep under the melting winter snows in their earthen dens. No self-respecting North Idaho woodchuck will emerge until at least early March, often even later in the colder areas to the north and east of Coeur d'Alene.

Groundhogs are true 'hibernators,' much like bears. They fall into a deep, nearly comatose sleep, during the winter months. Their body temperature falls to within just a few degrees above the freezing mark. Their hearts beat just three to five times per minute. They live off stored energy in the form of special fat called 'brown fat,' quite 'delicious,' I'm told, especially when served with eggs and sourdough toast on a snowy Saturday morning.

In other words, folks, forget all this Groundhog Day stuff. I believe that 'the ROBINS KNOW BEST' when it comes to predicting an early spring. We had them in town this January. In fact, they stayed here the entire winter.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

Believe it or not, thanks to a very wet and snowy start to the month, January of 2015 will go into the local weather record books as 'near-normal' in both liquid precipitation and snowfall.

As of Friday, Jan. 30, at 10 a.m., we had gauged 3.89 inches of liquid precipitation and 21.7 inches of snow during this first month of the new year. The 120-year normals since records began in Coeur d'Alene in 1895 have been 3.77 inches in rainfall and 21.4 inches in snowfall, very close to this January's stats.

We actually had more total precipitation in North Idaho this January, despite the remnants of the warm 'El Nino in the Pacific Ocean waters, than in January of 2014. We likewise received 4.7 inches more snow, thanks to the 'foot' of the white stuff that fell in the big storm of Sunday, Jan. 4.

Temperatures were 2.7 degrees above normal this January in town. The springlike 56 degrees on Jan. 25 broke the previous record of 49 degrees set back in 1959 on the same date by an amazing 7 degrees!

Longer-term, although we may see some additional snowfall in February and early to mid March, we should be fairly mild overall as we head toward the spring season, which still promises to arrive earlier than usual in the Inland Northwest, "groundhog or no groundhog." As I said earlier this week, "THE ROBINS KNOW." They've remained here in North Idaho all winter! Happy Groundhog Day.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com