Go ahead: Dream of a White Christmas!
The heaviest snowfall of the season finally arrived across the Inland Northwest late last Thursday and early Friday. Snowfall totals were around 3-6 inches in the lower elevations with about 6-12 inches in the higher mountains. Ski conditions look very good through the rest of the holiday season.
At Cliff’s station, he picked up 4.4 inches from that storm. The seasonal total as of late last week was just over 10 inches. More of the white stuff is expected this week that will guarantee a White Christmas across much of the Inland Northwest.
Despite the El Nino pattern, which has provided the Inland Northwest with milder than normal weather and below normal snowfall for November and December, we managed to barely receive a White Thanksgiving before turning milder with rain. By the way, the first half of December was one of the most snowless periods in history.
Then, thanks to the big weather change, we should get that White Christmas that so many of us have wanted. The chances are also pretty good for a White New Year’s Day before the weather turns milder and drier. So what are the odds for the good timing of the storms to give us snow for Thanksgiving and Christmas, especially during the warm, El Nino pattern?
As we move into early 2016, our region should start to see more of the effects of the El Nino weather pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean. Storm systems should be milder later in January with most of the moisture going south of our region. However, I still see more snow toward the end of next month, but overall totals for the season are still expected to be below normal.
As I mentioned last week, this year, 2015, is going to be another period of wide weather extremes of cold, heat, rain, snow and more across the globe.
One of the biggest weather stories for 2015 was the huge snowfalls in Boston. At Logan Airport, over 9 feet of snow fell for the 2014-15 season. The final total was 110.6 inches, which was more than double their seasonal average. The majority of that total, 90.2 inches, fell in 23 days from Jan. 24 through Feb. 15.
The previous record for Boston was in 1995-96 when 107.6 inches of snow fell. Eventually, that big snow pattern worked its way into the Inland Northwest when Coeur d’Alene picked up an incredible 172.6 inches during the 2007-08 season. Then in 2008-09, Coeur d’Alene measured 145.6 inches. Our normal is slightly less than 70 inches.
Cliff and I think the big snow pattern that hit Boston this year will once again work its way back toward our part of the country. It may arrive as soon as 2020 when we believe solar activity is expected to be very low and the chances of a much colder sea-surface temperature pattern, La Nina, are much higher. During the big snow years in North Idaho, we had a strong La Nina and sunspot activity was practically non-existent.
The northeastern part of the country also experienced one of the coldest temperatures in over 100 years in February. Then, record warmth gripped the same areas in May with very mild temperatures again in December. Ski resort operators are very concerned about the lack of snowfall, as much of the moisture has fallen as rain.
In Buffalo, N.Y., this year marked the longest streak without measurable snowfall for the start of the winter season. The previous record for the latest measurable snowfall was on Dec. 3, 1899. Golf courses were jammed thanks to the dry conditions and milder than normal weather.
Last year, Buffalo had about 30 inches of snow in mid-December. The streak was expected to end last Friday, Dec. 18, but another round of milder air is expected so the chances of a White Christmas along the East Coast are extremely small. Also, for the first 15 days of December, over 5,600 warm weather records were broken in the eastern U.S.
I’ll have a few more records next week as 2015 winds down. But, we expect to see more extreme weather in 2016 and beyond. Have a very Merry Christmas!
- Randy Mann and Cliff Harris.
Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com