Our warm El Nino may soon be the strongest in history

We continue to hear about El Nino, the warmer than normal sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean. Since the spring of 2015, this phenomenon has expanded at a regular pace. It's quite possible, if not likely, that this El Nino will be a "strong" event very soon, perhaps prior to the fall season.

Based on the long-term forecast models, scientists believe that this new El Nino will strengthen and peak toward the end of this year. It's expected to be strong and rival, or even surpass, the big event in 1997-98 when California received record-breaking rainfall and record drought in the southern Great Plains of Texas and Oklahoma.

From the most recent data, scientists predict that there is a 90 percent chance that this El Nino will persist through the winter of 2015-16 and an 80 percent chance that it will last into the spring of next year.

Warmer sea-surface temperatures have been expanding rapidly from the West Coast of South America westward along the Equator toward the International Date Line. The latest information shows much warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures near the West Coast of South America. Readings are as much as 5 degrees above normal levels, which points to a strong event in the near future.

As El Nino continues to strengthen, forecasters believe this event could be one of the strongest in at least 50 years. According to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, there hasn't been as much warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean since the big El Nino event in 1997-98. With the warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures covering a large portion of the eastern Pacific Ocean, it's likely that 2015 will be the warmest on Earth in terms of land and ocean measurements.

In addition to the rapid warming of ocean waters along the Equator, ocean temperatures are getting warmer once again along the U.S. West Coast and into the Gulf of Alaska. This unusually warm "blob" of ocean temperatures may be one reason why the West Coast has been in the midst of a major drought as the high pressure system has been locked over this region. The ridge in the West has also led to the flooding rains in the Midwest.

Drought has also been a recent problem in Southeast Asia which produces a number of agricultural commodities, including coffee. Vietnam has been hit by extreme dryness which has been hurting the production of coffee and rice. Raw sugar in Brazil may also be vulnerable due to wetter than normal weather and harvest delays. Monsoon rains have been less this season in India, which could curb plantings for the following season.

This new warm water phenomenon will probably be more noticeable during the winter season. The southeastern portions of the country will likely be wetter than normal with snow droughts in the northern U.S. During most El Nino events, especially the strong ones, California often receives much heavier than normal rainfall.

Based on the current forecasts, the Golden State may see "flooding rains" this upcoming winter season, a pattern similar to one recently in Oklahoma and Texas when big floods in that region of the country ended a decade-long drought in a matter of weeks. If this happens, then we'll probably be hearing about dangerous mudslides as a result of the heavy rainfall. Remember, long droughts are often broken by floods, especially in California, but there are no guarantees this will happen for the winter of 2015-16 if the strong western high refuses to move out of the region.

There are indications that California may be getting more much-needed rainfall this upcoming fall and winter season. Last month, there were all-time rainfall records for July in Los Angeles and San Diego. Over an inch of badly-needed moisture fell in parts of this region. A section of Interstate 10 between Los Angeles and Phoenix was washed out by record flooding on Sunday, July 19 in the Southern California deserts. San Diego had over an inch of rain on Saturday, July 18, which was more precipitation than this city saw in all of January, normally San Diego's second wettest month on average.

The moisture in Southern California was the remnants of Tropical Storm Delores. The warm water El Nino in the Pacific Ocean has led to a very active tropical storm and hurricane season in the eastern Pacific waters.

However, it has been relatively quiet in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters, which is typical of a strong El Nino pattern.

Based on historical data, our region usually receives near-normal precipitation during a strong El Nino event. However, due to the abundance of warm water off the West Coast and down to the Equator, the chances for normal snowfall are low while the possibility for an ice storm in our area are higher. The big ice storm in December of 1996 was part of that El Nino event. I should also mention that heavy snowfalls were reported during that month as well. In other words, despite the predicted low snowfall forecasts, anything is possible during this cycle of Wide Weather 'Extremes.'

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

By Climatologist Cliff Harris

We had one of the hottest Julys on record across the Inland Northwest. We ended the month with an average temperature of 73.5 degrees, compared to a normal of 68.9 degrees. At my station on Player Drive, there were a record 17 'Sholeh Days' with temperatures at or above 90 degrees last month. There were also three days with readings at or above 100 degrees. The hottest day was on the 31st when the mercury soared to 102 degrees, breaking the previous record for the date of 101 degrees in 1929.

Randy Mann, his wife Sally, my wife Sharon and myself were not in town last week as we were on a delightful cruise to see the Alaskan glaciers. Much of the scenery was spectacular, but there was a lot of rain in Alaska, which the locals were happy to see as they had a very dry spring. Our journey ended last Friday in Victoria, British Columbia, which is also suffering a major drought. But, the weather on the last day of July was very warm with lots of sunshine when we visited the Butchart Gardens.

Virtually the entire region is locked in choking drought thanks, at least in part, to the strong El Nino in the waters of the east-central Pacific Ocean. Only .63 inches of rain fell in July in Coeur d'Alene with a welcome .17 inches falling last Sunday and Monday. Rathdrum picked up close to a half-inch of much-needed moisture from that particular storm, but many other locations only reported a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation.

Not only has it been exceptionally hot this summer of 2015, it's likewise been extremely dry, again thanks to El Nino. Our total precipitation since early June in Coeur d'Alene has been only about a third of our normal rainfall.

The severe drought is continuing to result in extremely high fire danger levels across the Inland Northwest, including North Idaho. There was a lot of smoke this weekend from the Wolverine Creek fire near Lucerne and Chelan, Wash. The huge plume of smoke could be seen from Seattle into North Idaho.

As far as rainfall during the second half of this summer season ending in late September is concerned, I still don't see any substantial amounts of moisture arriving any time soon. We should remain mostly dry under a strong, stationary ridge of high pressure, again thanks to El Nino. Most of the isolated shower activity will be in the nearby mountains to the north and east of our valley locations.

Please be CAREFUL! We don't need any more wildfires in the region.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com