El Nino is back

According to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we now have a new "El Nino," the abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures. The recent warming of ocean waters near the International Date Line and along the Equator has prompted NOAA to say that we now have a very weak El Nino event.

The latest sea-surface temperature data does show some "dramatic warming" within the last several weeks along the West Coast of South America and westward along the Equator to the International Date Line. Since late March, it seems that readings have climbed to at least several degrees above normal near the South American West Coast. There are a few spots with temperatures over 3 degrees above average levels. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says this recent warming may signal another El Nino event. They say, "There is about a 50 percent chance of El Nino developing in the coming months, which is twice the normal likelihood."

If this warm water phenomenon hangs on into the summer season, the tropical storm and hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean will likely be less than the normal 11 named systems. However, there have been hurricanes, and a few strong ones, during an El Nino year. As mentioned earlier, this El Nino is relatively weak at this point. During this type of pattern, there is more 'wind shear' to the region. With wind shear, the speed and direction of the wind changes between different altitudes which often inhibits the hurricane formation.

Several hurricane forecasters are predicting for a very quiet Atlantic hurricane season in 2015. They believe it could be the season with the least activity since the mid-20th century. By contrast, a hurricane cycle prediction company states that El Nino will fade in August and this season may be the most dangerous in at least 3 years. Global Weather Oscillations says that "3 hurricane or strong tropical storm landfalls are likely along the United States coast." They also state that "the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years."

Whether the Atlantic and Caribbean area will see a quiet or active season, the Pacific Ocean usually reports more tropical storms and hurricanes during an El Nino year. There is plenty of warm water off the U.S. West Coast back toward the International Date Line.

El Nino is not good for Australian wheat production. If El Nino intensifies, then below normal rainfall is expected over the next 3-6 months. Wheat production along Australia's east coast has already been through two consecutive seasons of poor production due to abnormally dry conditions.

Ocean temperatures off the U.S. West Coast have also been much above normal since late last year. Some climatologists believe that this phenomenon is at least partially responsible for the drought in California and the below normal snowfall across much of the West. They also believe that our upcoming summer will be warmer than normal and the following winter may also be milder than usual, which would once again lead to less snowfall.

I do believe we'll see a slightly warmer than normal summer season, but the chances are higher that the pools of warm water off the West Coast will weaken and perhaps bring us more snowfall than what fell during the 2014-15 season. But, if El Nino manages to increase in strength, then we could see another snowfall year similar to this one.

Unfortunately, this new El Nino-type pattern should have little effect on California's current historic drought situation, despite some recent rain and mountain snowfall, as the strong ridge of high pressure continues to dominate. In early April, California's snowpack was only 5 percent of normal for the date, the lowest in history. Although the recent moisture was appreciated, many stations in the Golden State are now reporting precipitation totals below normal, especially in the southern part of the state.

California Governor Jerry Brown has already ordered mandatory water restrictions of at least 25 percent. One of my Physical Geography students said that their relatives in California were told that a $500 fine could be issued for wasting water.

The big drought in the western portion of the country continues to grow. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows dry conditions expanding in the Great Plains and Midwest with 22 percent of the U.S. corn production and 18 percent of the soybean areas having problems with dryness. That figure is up sharply from early March when only about 5 percent of the growing areas were in drought.

In our part of the country, conditions will now be drier and milder than normal into next week. However, showers and thunderstorms should start to increase in late April and early May.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

By Climatologist Cliff Harris

I want to thank Randy for writing the main part of my weekly column while I was in Bend, Ore., at the bedside of my brave, dying mother Muriel this past week after she suffered a catastrophic fall. I likewise wish to thank those who sent condolences.

She broke her neck and her nose on Sunday, April 12, but lingered in excruciating pain for nearly a full week before finally succumbing to pneumonia last Sunday morning at nearly 99 years old. She just missed reaching her long-held goal for longevity of 100 years by mere months.

I was able to talk with her a couple of days before she died. She said that she liked my book "Weather and Bible Prophecy," but couldn't understand why it took me 42 years go write my fourth book after writing three books in the early 1970s. I told her that I spent more than four decades on climatological and biblical research tying the two subjects together.

Just before she passed away, she asked me when I was going to retire. I told her that I would retire at the age of 98 after I complete 50 years with the Coeur d'Alene Press. She smiled and fell back to sleep. That's the last thing that she said to me. She was a great mother and a truly gracious lady. I certainly will miss her as will all who knew her. She taught me how to dance the waltz and how to treat women with respect. I still walk on the outside of the sidewalk near the street, open car doors and pull out chairs for my wife Sharon and her lady friends. I've never forgotten her instructions.

As far as the weather is concerned, following the four earthquakes of 3.7, 3.9, 3.3 and 2.7 last Thursday evening and Friday morning, which Randy told me he felt the second one, it appears that our snowfall season has ended as our long-range outlooks do not forecast any more snows in the region, especially at the lower elevations, until at least late October or early November.

Our recent weather pattern has been wonderful across the Inland Northwest. Temperatures climbed into the 70s with a 78 reported Tuesday afternoon along with lots of sunshine before some showers moved into the region. The next round of rain, and perhaps thunderstorm activity, is expected to arrive in late April and early May.

Overall, we should continue to see a rather normal springtime weather pattern of 'sun and showers' into mid to late June and, possibly, into early July. A warm to hot summer season with only occasional thunderstorms is also in the 'meteorological cards' for residents of North Idaho.

Also, my new book, "Weather and Bible Prophecy," has been receiving great reviews. We're putting them in the mail as quickly as possible. For more information, go to www.WeatherProphecy.com.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com