Our city-by-city winter snowfall predictions

It's that time of the year, folks.

Every year in mid-autumn, we issue our annual city-by-city snowfall predictions for North Idaho and surrounding areas of the Inland Empire.

Last winter, in 2013-14, we measured 67.2 inches of snow for the season, a bit below the 119-year average snowfall for Coeur d'Alene since 1895 of 69.8 inches. But, we did measure nearly 50 inches of snow on Player Drive between late January and early March of 2014.

It seems that it's either 'feast or famine' when it comes to snowfall in the Inland Northwest. These 'extremes' in the amounts of the white stuff usually depend upon the prevailing sea-surface temperature event in the eastern Pacific Ocean waters as well as other weather factors like solar activity, 'sunspots,' and the various jet stream flows across the Far West.

For example, during a very chilly 'La Nina' sea-surface temperature pattern in the harsh winter of 2007-08, when there were also very few sunspots, we gauged an all-time record 172.9 inches of snow on Player Drive. The next winter of 2008-09 was the second snowiest on record in Coeur d'Alene with a whopping 145.6 inches.

The two winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09 back-to-back produced an incredible 318.5 inches of snow in town, more than 100 inches greater than the previous two-year total of 217.6 inches combined in 1915-16 and 1916-17.

A record number of building collapses occurred in our region of the country between December of 2007 and January of 2009, when I had to have my roof shoveled off twice!

Then, by extreme contrast, thanks to a warm, wet 'El Nino' phenomenon in the waters of the eastern Pacific, our total snowfall of the entire winter of 2009-10 was a mere 18.4 inches, a whopping 51.4 inches below the normal on Player Drive of 69.8 inches. What a difference a year makes, weatherwise and otherwise. I only had to use my snowblower just once all winter!

Despite forecasts of "an extremely snowy winter in the North Country" by the Old Farmers Almanac and other weather prognosticators, Randy Mann and I see below normal snowfall this winter across the region since we are now in a warm 'El Nino' sea-surface event following the demise of the recent chilly and wet 'La Nina' in the Pacific Ocean west of South America.

For this reason, along with the fact that we're still seeing above normal numbers of sunspots, solar activity, we are calling for between 15 percent to 30 percent less snowfall than usual for the fast-approaching winter of 2014-15 across the Inland Empire.

1. The area ski resorts should measure between 180 inches at Mt. Spokane to as much as 400 inches of snow at Lookout Pass along the Idaho/Montana border.

2. Priest Lake: 78 to 83 inches.

3. Spirit Lake: 75 to 80 inches.

4. Twin Lakes: 73 to 78 inches.

5. Rathdrum: 72 to 77 inches.

6. Sandpoint: 71 to 76 inches.

7. Wallace: 70 to 75 inches.

8. Hauser Lake: 68 to 73 inches.

9. Kellogg (town): 67 to 72 inches.

10. Hayden Lake (above 2,400 feet): 65 to 70 inches.

11. Athol/Garwood: 63 to 68 inches.

12. Hayden (town): 62 to 67 inches.

13. NW Coeur d'Alene (my station on Player Drive): 59 to 64 inches.

14. Fernan Lake: 57 to 62 inches.

15. Dalton Gardens: 56 to 61 inches.

16. St. Maries: 55 to 60 inches.

17. Kalispell, Mont.: 54 to 59 inches.

18. Hope: 52 to 57 inches.

19. Coeur d'Alene (Downtown near the CD'A Resort): 47 to 52 inches.

20. Post Falls: 45 to 50 inches.

21. Harrison: 44 to 49 inches.

22. Missoula, Montana: 43 to 48 inches.

23. Spokane (South Hill): 41 to 46 inches.

24. Bayview: 40 to 45 inches.

25. Spokane Valley: 39 to 44 inches.

26. Spokane International Airport: 37 to 42 inches.

As usual, I reserve the right to adjust these seasonal snowfall predictions after we see what happens with the current warm and wet 'El Nino' by mid December. Stay tuned.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

Following the third driest first three weeks of October since at least 1895, we saw more rain on Thursday than had previously fallen in the past month. Only 1967 and 1974 were drier for the same period. The Palmer Drought Index on Oct. 18 had North Idaho in the 'moderate' dryness category. Our heavy rains this week ended the brief drought and the seasonal threat of forest and brush fires.

As of 10 a.m. on Friday, Oct. 24, we had gauged a healthy .87 inches of moisture from the latest Gulf of Alaska storm system. Fernan Lake and Rathdrum were close behind at .86 inches and .85 inches. Hayden picked up .76 inches. Post Falls had .75 inches. Even Spokane, where it's usually much drier, reported .52 inches.

Looking farther down the meteorological roadway, we see more showers and seasonable temperatures well into the month of November with snows occasionally above 4,000 feet. There's a slight 20 percent chance of showers on Halloween night this Friday. But, I don't see any heavy downpours disrupting the activities of the 'trick or treaters' of all ages.

As far as the upcoming winter of 2014-15 is concerned, as we've said for months, now, if El Nino gains strength in the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, we'll see milder than normal temperatures and less snow than usual, especially at elevations below 2,500 feet. Stay tuned.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com