Global warming has been vastly over-stated

My good friend, Cecil Hathaway, always sends me interesting weather-related articles. Here is what Cecil wrote me on Oct. 12:

"The 'rapid global warming due to anthropogenic (manmade) causes supporters don't seem quite as eager to discuss the 'gross inaccuracies' of their previous predictions and computer models concerning global warming as perhaps they should be."

Professor Judith Curry, former Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech and currently President of the Climate Forecast Applications Network, has recently authored a Wall Street Journal article entitled; "The Global Warming Statistical Meltdown." Her are a few excerpts from that Oct.10, 2014 column:

"At the recent United Nations Climate Summit, Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon warned that, 'without significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by all countries, and in key sectors, the window of opportunity to stay within less than 2 degrees of warming will close forever.'"

Actually, according to Professor Curry, "this window of opportunity may remain open for quite some time."

As I've written many times in 'Gems,' we haven't seen any significant global warming since it peaked in 1998 when we had very high solar activity combined with an extremely strong El Nino, the most intense event in decades.

I should likewise mention that after the end of the 500-year plus 'Little Ice Age' in 1850, the following 50 years to 1900 warmed by 0.8 degrees Celsius. From 1900 to 2013, we only warmed another 0.4 degrees Celsius as a planet, a total of 1.2 degrees Celsius in the past 163 years, not all that Earth-shaking in the opinion of this climatologist, an over-reaction to say the least.

Professor Curry added:

"Human-caused warming depends not only on increases in greenhouse gases, but also on how 'sensitive' the climate is to these increases. Climate sensitivity is defined as the global surface warming that occurs when the total concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles. If the climate sensitivity level is 'high,' then we can expect substantial warming in the coming century as greenhouse emissions continue to increase. But, if climate sensitivity is 'lower' than expected, then future warming will be substantially lower, much like what's happened since 1998. It may be several generations before we reach what the United Nations considers to be a 'dangerous level,' even with higher emissions." (Thanks, Judith.)

Remember, Meteorologist Randy Mann and I are NOT against climate change. We believe that we're seeing some of the wildest weather 'extremes' in at least 1,000 years. But, we are against what I call 'climate hysteria.' Climate changes are 'normal,' but the recent activities of Mankind have made things worse. We look for those changes such as the all-time record amount of sea-ice in Antarctica. "Preparation equals opportunity!"

Next week in 'Gems,' we'll give our annual city-by-city snowfall outlooks for the fast-approaching winter of 2014-15. Stay tuned.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

We finally received some much-needed rainfall on Wednesday, 0.21 inches at my station on Player Drive. This gave us 0.25 inches for the month as of Oct. 17. Only October of 1974 in Coeur d'Alene had less moisture with a puny 0.06 inches as of the same date. Our records for daily precipitation in town go back 119 years to 1895.

Looking ahead weatherwise into the rest of October and early November, we do see some much-needed moisture arriving in our part of the country from the Gulf of Alaska, as the huge ridge of high pressure in the eastern Pacific finally breaks down. Some snow will be possible in North Idaho above 3,500 feet shortly before Halloween along with much cooler temperatures.

As I've repeatedly said in the past few months, the type of winter weather that we'll likely see this upcoming 2014-15 season will depend upon what happens with the current rather 'weak' El Nino warm-water event in the Pacific Ocean west of California and Oregon.

If this El Nino gains strength later this fall as many scientists expect, we will probably see less than 40 inches of total snowfall, especially at the lower elevations below 2,500 feet, in North Idaho. But, if El Nino falls apart, all bets are off. Stay tuned.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com