Natural variability, not global warming, responsible for all the weather 'extremes' around the world

Despite what you may have read or heard lately, man-made global warming is NOT the main culprit in our worldwide cycle of wide weather 'ex-tremes.'

Strong-er than usual HIGH PRES-SURE RIDGES and DEEP 'TROUGHS' OF LOW PRESSURE between them are causing these often disastrous droughts, heatwaves, floods, coldwaves, hailstorms, 70 mile per hour staightline-winds, blizzards, etc., etc., etc.

Peaks in solar activity and wide swings in sea-surface ocean temperatures are likewise resulting in 'pendulating swings' in the meteorological scale.

Take the worst drought in at least 200 years in California for a prime example. Stanford University has correctly pointed out in a recent report "that it's the HUGE 'PACIFIC HIGH' west of California that stretches back to Hawaii, that's the primary climatological factor for the extreme drought conditions, not global warming."

Even our dry, hot, fire-ravaged summer of 2014 in the Inland Northwest was NOT caused by global warming, but the enormous 'blocking ridge' of high pressure in the waters off the west coast of North America. Meteorologist Randy Mann and I predicted the development of this gigantic ridge months before it happened.

In an Associated Press article released on Monday, Sept. 22, Jeff Barnard found that the warming temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean over the last century have been due to "natural changes in the wind-flow patterns, not increases in greenhouse gases linked to global warming."

Jeff went on to point out that there is "evidence that local winds are a more important factor explaining ocean warming than greenhouse gases."

How much warming have we actually seen in the waters off the West Coast in the past 115 years since 1900? Well, according to NOAA, the increase in surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and Alaska into British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and California has been a rather puny 1 degree Fahrenheit over the entire time span.

One last climatological fact that I wish to underscore in this week's column, scientists could not tie global warming into the Oct. 5, 2013, record killer blizzard in South Dakota, the coldest winter in modern times in the North Country of the U.S., the freak storms in Germany, the torrential rains in Europe this spring and summer, or the much colder-than-normal year in Britain in 2014.

Tom Karl, NOAA's National Climate Data Center's director recently said, "There is no single factor that is responsible, including global warming, for the wide weather 'extremes' that we are seeing around the world. Natural variability is always a part of any extreme climatic event.

Amen to that as Randy and I both contend that we are, and will continue to experience, 'climate changes' across the globe and that Mankind's activities are making things worse, but not the primary cause of these wild weather patterns. Randy put together a video for a local television station when we were living in Vermont in 2001 that points out 'Our Changing Climate.' It can be seen at www.LongRangeWeather.com.

Also, our long-term climate chart dating back to 2,500 B.C. on our website forecasts more 'extreme' and fluctuating weather until 2020 when we expect conditions to become colder as solar activity will be minimal at best plus a possibility of a strong, cooler La Nina. But, by the 2030s, the Earth's temperature is expected to warm up once again and perhaps climb to levels higher than what we have today. Only time will tell.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

The past 8 weeks since Aug. 22 have been the second driest such period since the inception of local Coeur d'Alene area regular weather record-keeping in 1895.

As of 10 a.m. on Friday, Oct. 10, we had only gauged just .68 inches of rain on Player Drive in nearly the past two months. This compares to the normal precipitation for the period of 2.56 inches. Only Aug. 22-Oct. 10, 2012 was drier than this late summer and early autumn with a scant .11 inches of moisture.

Temperatures since Aug. 22 have averaged a whopping 5.6 degrees above normal at my station on Player Drive. The unusually warm and dry conditions have caused me to continue watering well past the normal mid to late September period. I'm not blowing out my sprinklers this year until at least Oct. 17.

Looking ahead into the second half of October and early November, we do see some much-needed moisture arriving in our part of the country from the Gulf of Alaska, as the huge ridge of high pressure in the eastern Pacific finally breaks down. Some snow will be possible in North Idaho above 3,500 feet shortly before Halloween along with much cooler temperatures.

As I've repeatedly said in the past few months, the type of winter weather that we'll likely see this upcoming 2014-15 season will depend upon what happens with the current rather 'weak' El Nino warm-water event in the Pacific Ocean west of California and Oregon.

If this El Nino gains strength later this fall as many scientists expect, we will probably see less than 40 inches of total snowfall, especially at the lower elevations below 2,500 feet, in North Idaho. But, if El Nino falls apart, all bets are off. Stay tuned.

Happy Columbus Day!

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com