Our current predictions call for less snow this winter due to El Nino

The fall season is in full swing across the Inland Empire. Temperatures have cooled a bit, but the average reading was about two to three degrees above normal for Sept-ember. It was also drier than average as rainfall totals last month were less than 50 percent of normal. In Spokane, only .26 inches of rain fell while .67 inches was measured in Coeur d'Alene.

Many have asked about the new El Nino in waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean. El Nino is the abnormal warming of ocean waters that often leads to warmer and wetter conditions in the northwestern U.S., as well as California, during the winter seasons. Despite the higher moisture, we usually see less snowfall than average due to the warmer sea-surface temperatures.

Much of drought-stricken California and parts of the southern Great Plains are still hoping for at least a moderate El Nino pattern. Scientists say that a moderate to strong El Nino is needed to change worldwide weather patterns. Right now, the warm water phenomenon is rather weak and may not offer much relief to the extensive dryness in California during the critical upcoming winter season.

Our rather warm and dry summer season in the western U.S. may have also been influenced by the large pool of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska. Ocean temperatures in this region are averaging as high as 5 degrees above normal levels.

This area of abnormal warming also extends northward into the Arctic regions. There have been numerous reports of additional ice melting in the Arctic which has raised a new level of concern. The warmer ocean waters could be one reason for the melting. The rise in ocean temperatures near the North Pole may be caused, at least in part, by the undersea thermal vents. Many have been discovered in recent years that are literally heating the waters along the ocean floor.

Watching these patterns for many years, we've noticed that low pressure systems will usually form or even intensify over regions of warmer waters. As the low pressure forms in the Gulf of Alaska, high pressure will become stronger to the east. This has been the case for the summer and early fall for much of the West Coast as the ridge of high pressure continues to dominate this part of the country blocking most Pacific storms.

This current El Nino is very weak and only having minor influences on global weather patterns. Many computer models still indicate that this El Nino may rebound and perhaps strengthen to a moderate event later this fall and hold on through early 2015. If this occurs, this would be great news for the drought areas of California, the Desert Southwest and the southern Great Plains.

So what does this mean for the winter of 2014-15 in the northwestern U.S.? Well, we should start turning wetter and cooler later this month into early November. The long-range computer models are already beginning to show a weakening of the high pressure ridge in our region in the next few weeks. But it's still going to be strong enough to keep vital rainfall from entering California. The central Golden State may have to wait until at least November to see some much-needed rain. Unfortunately, it won't be enough to break the drought unless torrential rains move into the state in some sort of 'Pineapple Connection' from Hawaii.

In the Northwest, precipitation totals are expected to be above normal for the winter. However, the warmer ocean temperatures, including those in the Gulf of Alaska, should decrease snowfall totals as a big chunk of the moisture falls as rain. In the mountains, though, it may be cold enough to produce enough snowfall for another good ski season. It's all about the temperature and a few degrees can make a big difference between rain and snow.

A couple of degrees above normal in our part of the country makes a huge difference in the amount of snowfall we receive, especially at elevations below 2,500 feet.

In late October, we'll issue our annual city-by-city snowfall predictions for this winter across the region, including North Idaho, eastern Washington and western Montana. Stay tuned.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

September's temperatures averaged 2.7 degrees above normal and the monthly precipitation at just .67 inches was less than half of the normal of 1.43 inches since 1895 for Coeur d'Alene.

We observed our 30th 'Sholeh Day' at or above 90 degrees on Sept. 7 of the hotter and drier than normal summer of 2014, the warmest summer season locally since 2009.

Looking ahead into the rest of the fall and early winter period, we should continue to see a rather nice pattern of milder than normal temperatures, more sunshine than usual for early to mid October and far less precipitation than normal until a much cooler and wetter weather cycle arrives around the 'new moon' of Oct. 23 continuing throughout much of the month of November when we should see our first measurable snowfall of the winter of 2014-15 sometime around Veterans' Day, Nov. 11.

As I've said frequently in recent articles from now to the end of a rather soggy 2014, we should see a pattern of 'sun and showers' much like we observed during this past spring season. We are likely to once again surpass 30 inches of precipitation this year by Dec. 31 in Coeur d'Alene. Our 119-year normal rainfall since 1895 has been 26.77 inches. The Spokane area, by comparison, where they've missed many of our recent strong thunderstorms, will be lucky to reach 15 or 16 inches of precipitation this year, a bit below normal.

As I've said in recent articles, the type of winter weather that we'll see in 2014-15 locally in the Inland Empire will depend at least partially upon what happens in the next several months to the current rather 'weak' El Nino in the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. If El Nino strengthens, we will likely see less snowfall than usual and milder temperatures overall. But, if it falls apart, all bets are off.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com