How low can jobless rate go?

POST FALLS - Kootenai County's unemployment rate has dipped below 4 percent for the first time in seven years.

The number for October dropped to 3.9 percent from 4.3 in September, according to a report released Friday by the Idaho Department of Labor.

"The large drop in unemployment rate is contributed to an 8.6 percent drop in the number of unemployed," said Alivia Metts, Labor's regional economist. "Another contributing factor was the continued drop in initial claims."

The last time Kootenai County was this low was December 2007 when it was 3.7 percent. Kootenai's rate for October last year was 6.7 percent.

The estimates by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics are preliminary for October and will be revised in March along with those for the rest of the year based on additional employment data gathered over the coming months.

Metts said the job market continues to improve.

According to The Conference Board's Help Wanted Online, there were 1,720 job listings in the month of October. That is 6 percent ahead of September.

"Over 86 percent were full-time jobs and 20 percent have been on the market for more than 60 days," Metts said.

She said the hardest-to-fill jobs in October were speech/language pathologists and occupational therapists. The top-employing industries were in temporary help services, health care and commercial banking.

"All sectors are showing over-the-year job growth with service-providing industries leading the way, including professional and business services," Metts said. "Over the course of the year, we expect to see continued growth, albeit at a similar rate."

Idaho's unemployment rate dropped four-tenths of a percentage point to a 6.5-year low of 4.1 percent in October despite slowing economic activity by employers, according to the report.

Last month's drop in the jobless rate - the largest one-month change on record - was driven by a combination of rising employment and a declining labor force.

October's state rate is the lowest since March 2008.

The state's four-tenths of a percentage point decline from September overwhelmed the one-tenth drop in the national rate, which has been higher than Idaho's for more than 13 years. The nation's rate is 5.8 percent.

Total employment in Idaho rose 1,200 to a record 742,400 as the labor force fell 1,500 to its lowest level since January 2013, the report states.

Idaho's participation rate - the share of the working-age population with jobs or looking for jobs - dropped two-tenths of a point to 63.1 percent, the lowest level since July 1976. According to department analysts, the decrease largely reflects retirements and a slowdown in economic activity.

Idaho's jobless rate has fallen nearly two percentage points in the past year from 5.9 percent in October 2013, while total employment has risen more than 13,000 in that time.

Considering a comparatively weak job generation from September to October, some department analysts believe most of the increased employment over the month may have been among workers operating one-person businesses as sole proprietors.

The county with the highest jobless rate in Idaho in October was in Adams County at 6.7 percent. The lowest was Clark County at 1.8 percent. The last time a county posted a rate below 2 percent was Teton County at 1.9 percent in February 2008.

All five metropolitan areas suffered rate declines from September and none posted a rate more than 4 percent.