New El Nino may be right around the corner

Many have asked me if we're going to be seeing new El Nino sea-surface temperature pattern later this year. An El Nino is the abnormal warming of ocean temperatures along the Equatorial regions that ultimately changes worldwide weather patterns.

During this cycle, the northern U.S. will often see much less snow during the winter and California will receive above normal amounts of moisture as the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream gains strength and moves northward. Here in the Inland Northwest, snowfall totals during an El Nino year are often lower than normal, but moisture totals remain near to above average levels as winter temperatures are mild. The chances also increase for ice storms in our region during this type of pattern.

Within the last several weeks, ocean temperatures along the Equatorial regions and the West Coast of South America have been warming up. Readings along the Equator are now approximately 1-3 degrees above average levels. But, right along the South American coastline, ocean temperatures are about 2-4 degrees above normal, indicating that a new El Nino may be declared very soon. The warmer sea-surface temperatures have also extended northward to the west coast of the U.S, which also increases the possibility of a milder winter.

Computer models are also predicting that a new El Nino will form sometime during the summer season. According to scientists at the Climate Prediction Center in the U.S., we're still in a La Nada, the in-between the cooler La Nina and the warmer El Nino sea-surface temperature pattern. However, most scientists believe this new El Nino will form quickly and could be stronger than the forecast computer models originally forecasted.

A new El Nino would certainly be beneficial to California, the Desert Southwest and the central and southern Great Plains and moisture levels often increase as the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream gains strength. As mentioned earlier, California is suffering through one of the worst droughts in recorded history.

Severe to extreme drought conditions are now being reported throughout the state as many officials are worried about this year's fire season being one of the biggest in history.

Even with a new El Nino sea-surface temperature cycle forming in the Pacific Ocean, there will likely be the lag-effect from the current La Nada lasting through the summer. Based on our current forecasts, there is a good chance that the big drought in the Far West will eventually move over the central U.S. later in the spring and early summer season creating moisture problems for many farmers.

Here in the Inland Northwest, Cliff and I still believe that the upcoming summer of 2014 will be very warm along with some hot afternoons. It's quite possible we'll have temperatures climb to at or above the 100 degree mark. Conditions should also be a little drier than normal, but don't be surprised to see a few passing showers or a thunderstorm, but mainly over the mountains.

SOLAR STORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH

By Meteorologist Randy Mann

Our sun continues to be in it's "maxima" phase as the number of sunspots remain relatively high. Earlier this month, the sun emitted a moderate solar flare indicating that it's still in the maxima phase. Over the last few months, the sun has consistently produced an average of over 100 sunspots, indicating that our star is still fairly active. On April 17 the sun cranked out 296 sunspots, the highest level since the late 1990s. The latest figures have been around 120 to 130 solar storms, indicating that the sun is slowly heading out of its "maxima" phase.

The latest projections continue to have higher than average solar activity through at least the early summer season with the overall average number of solar storms decreasing by the fall. Don't be too surprised to hear about additional solar flares in the coming months.

During the late 1990s, the sun was averaging about 200 solar storms per day when global temperatures were rising. Despite the recent activity, this new solar cycle is not as strong as the one in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

By the way, many solar scientists predict that the new "minima" cycle that's expected to peak, or be at its lowest, around the early 2020s. Assuming this occurs, the decreased sunspot activity may bring Earth's temperature down a bit from the current levels. Remember Cliff's snowy forecast for 2020?

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

Our delightful weather pattern of 'sun and showers' continues across the Inland Northwest. Much of last week had good weather, but more showers and cooler temperatures arrived prior to the holiday weekend.

We don't see much in the way of major weather changes locally through mid June, but temperatures could soar into the lower 90s sometime during mid to late June as high pressure builds back into our part of the country.

As mentioned earlier, the summer of 2014, thanks to a stationary ridge of high pressure camped over the Pacific Northwest, should be both warmer and drier than normal, about 'perfect' for most outdoor activities, if one wears a hat and lots of sunscreen for protection from the hot sun.

The current long-range outlook for this year's edition of the North Idaho Fair and Rodeo in late August still calls for mostly sunny and warm conditions, but not extremely hot. If El Nino gets rolling, then the upcoming fall season may be mild and wet.