Colder and drier climate globally spells higher food prices

Just this past Wednesday, the price of a bushel of oats on the Chicago Board of Trade reached an all-time high of $5.33 a bushel. No wonder oat-based cereal prices are going up fast. Stock up on the Cheerios and Quaker Oats while you can afford them. Oat bran products are already 20 percent higher than in 2013. Coffee has likewise soared.

California's worst drought in recorded history continues despite some recent heavy rains and flooding, the case of "too little, too late" in most cases. But, every drop of rain is certainly appreciated.

Due to severe drought conditions over the past decade in California, the Desert Southwest, the Great Plains and Texas, our U.S. cattle herds are at levels not seen in at least 60 years. We are seeing the fewest cattle at the same time that the U.S. population has doubled. The suffering lower middle class is going to have to endure perhaps many years of much higher food costs in general. This will include many nuts, fruits and vegetables as well as grains and meats. Remember, almonds, pistachios and avocados are almost entirely produced in California. If irrigation waters dry up, these crops will be devastated. We can only hope for a wet March and April in the Golden State, because there is usually very little rain during the six-month period from May through October.

As a climatologist who has often detailed at least 30 natural, solar-related major climate changes since 600 B.C., both warmer and cooler and wetter and drier, I can tell you that it's the COLD/DRY cycles that have caused the worst problems worldwide. When people couldn't feed themselves, they died, often in great numbers. Disease and pestilence took millions of lives, especially in Europe and Asia.

My friend Bob Felix, and several Russian, Japanese, Australian and United Kingdom climate scientists have been predicting a much colder climate for the period beginning in 2014 that could last for decades. Bob Felix is looking for another GREAT ICE AGE. The Russian scientist, Abdusamatov, says that we've "already entered a 'LITTLE ICE AGE' that actually began in 2007 when we saw buildings collapse from record snows in North Idaho. I agree with the forecasts of global cooling, but I'm not so sure about a new ice age, little or great. I remember that many climate scientists were predicting the same ice age scenarios in the mid to late 1970s. Instead, we got warmer, much warmer. But, that natural cycle of global warmth peaked in 1998. Now, some 16 years later, mainly due to an overall cooler solar cycle and colder sea-surface temperatures in the various oceans on the planet, we've seen the return of cold, harsh winters.

Once again, folks, I'm a firm believer in climate changes. They come and go "like clockwork."

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

I wrote this North Idaho weather update at 9 a.m. on Saturday, March 1, that certainly came into the Inland Empire as a 'roaring lion' from the far northern Arctic regions.

Our morning low early Saturday was a bone-chilling 12 degrees, 9 degrees above the record minimum for the date of 3 degrees set nearly a century ago in 1917. But, with a frigid northeast wind exceeding 25 miles per hour at times, our wind chill factor was near minus 20 degrees, almost unbelievable for this late in the winter season. Later in the afternoon, we were expecting a maximum temperature near 20 degrees, exactly 26 degrees below the normal March 1 high of 46 degrees.

The last 5 weeks, since the harsh winter of 2013-14 finally arrived on Jan. 28, have been abnormally cold and snowy. The average daily maximum reading of 34 degrees has been nearly 10 degrees below normal. The month of February, with an average high of just 34 degrees and an average low of 20 degrees, was a whopping 5.5 degrees below normal, the 6th coldest February since at least 1895 in Coeur d'Alene. For only the 8th time in our recorded history, the month of February was the coldest of the entire winter season.

February was the fourth snowiest on record in town with a healthy 30.3 inches of the white stuff measured six times a day at my station on Player Drive. Only the 39.5 inches in 1955, the 33.7 inches in 1919 and the 31.2 inches in 2008 were higher amounts than we received in 2014 in February. Our total February 2014 liquid precipitation in Coeur d'Alene was 4.02 inches, nearly double the normal of 2.17 inches.

Since Jan. 28, we had gauged more than 40 inches of snow as of March 1 in town. That was more than half of our normal snowfall of 69.8 inches for an entire winter season. By extreme comparison, the first 60 percent of the winter of 2013-14 only produced a scant 16.4 inches as of Jan. 27.

Looking ahead into the rest of March and spring of 2014, Randy Mann and I see warmer, and hopefully sunnier days, down the meteorological roadway. It's possible that we will see afternoon high temperatures soar into the 50s and even the lower 60s sometime around St. Patrick's Day, March 17, during this month's 'full moon' cycle thanks to a building ridge of high pressure and warm southwest winds from the eastern Pacific regions. I'll have more details next week. Spring officially arrives on Thursday, March 20. Remember to turn those clocks 'ahead 1 hour' this next Saturday evening, March 8.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com