Record California drought to persist into fall

The worst drought in California in modern times will not break until at least late this fall with the return of the annual rainy season, if then.

Randy Mann and I still see a strengthening El Nino event in the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean by late October into early to mid December. This could mean a juicy "Pineapple Connection" developing between Hawaii and the central California by sometime around Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 27.

In the meantime, however, things will only worsen with the continuation of the six-month-plus dry season in the Golden State (see map). Many farmers in the central valleys will be forced to let their lands remain fallow during the summer growing season due to the serious lack of vital irrigation water supplies. The state has cut water deliveries to farmers and cities alike by nearly 95 percent in the rest of 2014.

Most counties in California have received less precipitation in the past three years since 2011 than they normally measure in a single rainy season. For example, downtown Los Angeles has gauged less total moisture in the past 36 months, about 15 inches, than the city of Pensacola, Fla., reported in just 24 hours on April 30, nearly 20 inches, which led to widespread lowland flooding, one wild weather "extreme" to the other, part of a disastrous global cycle of wild weather.

What makes matters worse waterwise in California and other areas of the parched Far West is that many current water users with "old rights" contracts are able to buy as much water as they need at the prevailing high market rates. Many of these farmers, ranchers and other businesses like golf courses and amusement parks are not even required to have water meters or monitor the amounts of water that they use. It doesn't seem fair.

Next week: The recent huge Indonesian volcanic eruption.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

One of the strongest thunderstorms to hit Coeur d'Alene in at least 25 years caused flash flooding in the northwestern corner of the city on Tuesday, June 3, between 4 and 5 p.m. Marble-sized hail damaged recently-planted flowers in our backyard on Player Drive, where a record 1.49 inches of rain fell between 9 p.m. on Monday to 6 p.m. on Tuesday.

A record for the date rainfall of 1.08 inches on Tuesday at my station easily busted the previous precipitation mark for June 3 of 0.95 inches in 1936. Believe it or not, most of the rainfall, 0.96 inches, fell in just 26 minutes on Tuesday between 4:06 p.m. and 4:32 p.m. At one time, the busy intersection of Kathleen and Ramsey Road was flooded by more than a 'foot' of water, snarling traffic. The rains were so heavy that motorists "couldn't see 10 feet in front of their vehicles."

It's hard to believe that in just 21 hours, on Monday and Tuesday, we received more rain than during the entire month of May, just 1.36 inches, more than an inch below the 115-year normal of 2.37 inches since 1895.

But, our strong thunderstorm on Tuesday afternoon was a mere shower when compared with baseball-sized hail, 6- to 8-inch rains, tornadoes and 70 mile per hour winds that Nebraska and Iowa endured on the same day at almost the same hour.

Several of our farmer clients reported "huge losses" to standing wheat soon to be harvested. Newly-planted spring and summer crops will have to be replanted as soon as the muddy fields allow. Crops sown after June 10 rarely have bumper yields.

Following our predicted showers and thunderstorms locally in early to mid June, we should see temperatures soaring into the lower 90s sometime during mid to late June as high pressure builds back into our part of the country.

As mentioned earlier, the summer of 2014, thanks to a stationary ridge of high pressure camped over the Pacific Northwest, should be both warmer and drier than normal, about 'perfect' for most outdoor activities, if one wears a hat and lots of sunscreen for protection from the hot sun.

The current long-range outlook for this year's edition of the North Idaho Fair and Rodeo in late August still calls for mostly sunny and warm conditions, but not extremely hot. If El Nino gets rolling, then the upcoming fall season may be mild and wet.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com