El Nino seems to be hurting the 2014 Indian monsoon

Last week, we featured the southwestern U.S. annual monsoon season. Phoenix has finally seen some much-needed rains.

This week, we'll take a look at the world's most important monsoon, the 'Indian Summer Monsoon,' which has been off to an extremely poor start in 2014 thanks, at least in part, to the new El Nino in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, which has threatened 'key' soybean, sugarcane, cotton and groundnut crops in recent weeks.

The Indian summer monsoon typically starts in the southernmost portions of the country and then slowly spreads northward by mid July through the rest of the subcontinent including much of neighboring Pakistan.

But, this year, scientists are pointing out "significant changes" in the normally soggy monsoon event. The risk of drought this season in central India, one of the most densely populated regions on Earth, is increasing with each day that the monsoon rains fail to develop.

It's not just the case of a monsoon failure or partial failure in India. It's the RAINFALL EXTREMES, just like we're seeing in the Upper Midwest this year, that often result in crop loss disasters.

For example, even if the rainfall totals for the 2014 monsoon season recover later in the summer, which is possible, too many dry days up front without adequate moisture can severely reduce crop yields. This often reverberates throughout India's agriculturally-dependent economy. India's need for food imports, however, can boost the U.S. exports of grains and soybeans. In other words, India's LOSS is our GAIN!

Meanwhile, India has just had its hottest mid June through early July period on record. Maximum readings in New Delhi averaged 112 degrees in the past 21 days. Crop losses have already occurred due to the unusually hot and dry weather conditions.

The latest Indian Monsoon chart from the government of India shows the normal (red) versus the actual (green) tracks of this year's monsoons. Although, there has been some moisture, the chart indicates that what moisture has fallen has been later than normal across much of the country. For example, the northern limit of the monsoon rains has been confined to south-central India, compared to a normal season when the moisture is the near the Pakistan border at this time of year.

Stay tuned for further updates on the 2014 Indian monsoon.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

The HEAT is on!

As Meteorologist Randy Mann and I have long predicted, this July indeed is turning out to be a very hot and dry month following an extremely soggy and cool spring of 2014 with nearly 5 inches of rain in June.

Temperatures across the Inland Northwest during the past 10 days have soared to as high as 97 degrees in normally cool Portland, Ore., and 102 degrees near Walla Walla, Wash. North Idaho has been in the low to mid 90s for several days on end.

It's quite possible that we will approach the century mark as expected early in the July 12-19 'full moon' cycle in town. Some parts of southeastern Washington state may top out near 110 degrees. That's mighty hot to say the least, almost like Phoenix conditions.

Longer term, it's quite likely that we will see another 20 to 25 blisteringly hot 'Sholeh Days' at or above 90 degrees before this torrid summer finally ends in mid to late September.

Rainfall locally during the next 60 days or so will be well below normal thanks to a very strong ridge of high pressure camped over the Inland Northwest. As usual during the summer season in North Idaho, there will be some scattered thunderstorm activity, especially in the mountain areas to the east and south closer to the northern edge of the monsoonal flow from Arizona. Yes, folks, as we predicted, Phoenix and the surrounding Desert Southwest have finally received some much-needed moisture despite afternoon highs well above the century mark.

WEATHER NOTE

The 98-degree temperature reading Sunday at 3:12 p.m. was the warmest temperature here since the 99-degree reading on July 2, 2013. The record for July 13 was set way back in 1926 at 102 degrees. We may see our first shot at reaching the century mark for the first time since the summer of 2009 on Wednesday, July 16. But, it may be the case of "close but no cigar."

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com