'Punxsutawney Phil' predicts a longer winter season

By special request, I waited until Sunday morning to write this Groundhog Day, 'Super Bowl' update for 'Punxsutawney Phil's' predictions on both the weather for the next six weeks and who will win the big game later this afternoon at MetLife Stadium in chilly New Jersey.

The famed groundhog emerged from his snow-covered lair and saw his shadow at Gobbler's Knob in central Pennsylvania, thereby predicting six more weeks of harsh winter weather and a three-point edge for the cold-weather-loving Denver Broncos over the Seattle Seahawks.

Like most examples of weather folklore, there is an 'ounce of truth' in Phil seeing his shadow and therefore predicting six more weeks of winter. Clear skies at this time of year usually means that a strong cold ridge of high pressure is over the area. There is a definite six-week cycle to high pressure ridges. They often take two weeks to build, two more weeks to peak and two additional weeks to move out of a particular region or zone. Thus, perhaps, six more weeks of winter.

The legend of Groundhog Day is based on an old Scottish couplet: "If Candlemas Day is bright and clear, there'll be two winters in the year." Candlemas Day was a Christian holiday that celebrated Mary's ritual purification. They believed that if the sun came out on that particular day, winter would last for six more weeks.

What about our North Idaho groundhogs, or as many call them, 'Woodchucks.' What are they predicting about the weather patterns across the Inland Northwest between now and the official start of the spring season on March 20?

Well, our groundhogs are still fast asleep under the recent winter snows in their earthen dens. No self-respecting North Idaho woodchuck will emerge until at least early March, often even later in the colder areas to the north and east of Coeur d'Alene. Besides, clouds and dense fog here would have prevented 'Idaho Dave' from seeing his shadow this frigid Sunday morning.

Groundhogs are true 'hibernators,' much like bears. They fall into a deep, nearly comatose sleep, during the winter months. Their body temperature falls to within just a few degrees above the freezing mark. Their hearts beat just three to five times per minute. They live off stored energy in the form of special fat called 'brown fat,' quite 'delicious,' I'm told, especially when served with eggs and sourdough toast on a snowy Saturday morning.

In other words, folks, forget all this Groundhog Day stuff. Even Al Gore doesn't buy it!

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK

Old Man Winter returned as predicted to the Inland Empire during the last four days of January with heavy snows and much colder temperatures.

Nearly a 'foot' of the white stuff fell locally at my weather station on Player Drive this past week, more than doubling the puny 5.5 inches that I measured during the first 27 days of January. We finished the month with a respectable 17 inches of snow, good news for sledders, skiers, snowboarders and snowmobilers alike, this despite the icy roads in the rural areas. Tim Martin and his able crew did a top notch job of removing the snow in town. My plower, Kevin Cooper, kept my driveway "as clean as a whistle." Thanks, Kevin.

We gauged 2.58 inches of liquid precipitation in Coeur d'Alene during January, 1.19 inches below the 119-year average since 1895 of 3.77 inches.

But, we should be thankful that we're not in the throes of a severe drought, like the one that is crippling California and other states from Kansas and Iowa westward past Hawaii covering more than 5,000 miles.

Just this past Friday, California Gov. Jerry Brown announced that "the Golden State won't send any water to local agencies beginning this spring affecting the critical water supplies for 25 million people and irrigation for thousands of farmers."

Many farmers in California's Central Valley, one of the most productive agricultural regions in the entire country, likewise draw water from a system of reservoirs and canals, may lose as much as 95 percent of its normal water allotments in 2014.

Despite the snowy, chilly end to January, the month saw temperatures nearly four degrees warmer than usual in Coeur d'Alene, including a near-record maximum reading of 49 degrees with no snow on the ground on Jan. 13. Our monthly lowest reading was 15 degrees on Jan. 6.

Longer-term, 'Punxsutawney Phil' may be right locally about our weather being both colder and snowier than usual through mid March. It was frigid minus 2 degrees in Athol and 1 degree above zero in Spokane on Feb. 1.

As I wrote this article early Sunday morning on Feb. 2, Groundhog Day, light snow was already falling in the region. Our long-range outlook was calling for more snow and even colder temperatures near the zero mark locally in town later this week. It's likely that another "big dump of snow" may hit this part of the country between Feb. 9-12, just ahead of a beautiful white Valentine's Day.

But, despite the Groundhog's wintry outlook, I still see spring arriving a bit early this year, probably by March 13 to 15. Stay tuned.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com