Our updated city-by-city winter of 2014-15 snowfall predictions

In late October, I provided my annual city-by-city snowfall predictions for North Idaho and surrounding areas of the Inland Empire.

Now, two months later in late December just before Christmas, I'm giving my final winter of 2014-15 area snow prognostications.

As of Friday, Dec. 19, we've only received 2.3 inches of snow at my station on Player Drive. The normal is about 20 inches of the white stuff. The Spokane International Airport has picked up only 1.1 inches of snow for the season to date.

Much of our moisture has come as rain at elevations below 2,500 feet. Our warmer than normal sea-surface temperature event, El Nino, is one of the big reasons why we're seeing this type of pattern. Many are still asking if we have a chance at a White Christmas in the lower elevations. Some moisture, along with colder air, is expected to move into the region this week, so there is a chance. But, the odds are still less than 50/50.

Last winter, in 2013-14, we measured 67.2 inches of snow for the season, a bit below the 119-year average snowfall for Coeur d'Alene since 1895 of 69.8 inches. But, we did measure nearly 50 inches of snow on Player Drive between late January and early March of 2014. It's quite possible that if El Nino does weaken a bit, we'll see more snowfall around the same time in 2015, but totals are expected to be less than what we had last year.

It seems that it's either 'feast or famine' when it comes to snowfall in the Inland Northwest. These 'extremes' in the amounts of the white stuff usually depend upon the prevailing sea-surface temperature event in the eastern Pacific Ocean waters as well as other weather factors like solar activity, 'sunspots,' and the various jet stream flows across the Far West.

For example, during a very chilly 'La Nina' sea-surface temperature pattern in the harsh winter of 2007-08, when there were also very few sunspots, we gauged an all-time record 172.9 inches of snow on Player Drive. The next winter of 2008-09 was the second snowiest on record in Coeur d'Alene with a whopping 145.6 inches.

Then, by extreme contrast, thanks to a warm, wet 'El Nino' phenomenon in the waters of the eastern Pacific, our total snowfall of the entire winter of 2009-10 was a mere 18.4 inches, a whopping 51.4 inches below the normal on Player Drive of 69.8 inches. What a difference a year makes, weatherwise and otherwise. I only had to use my snowblower just once all winter!

By the way, on Sunday, Dec. 21, winter officially began at 3:03 p.m. This is also the time when we experience the shortest day of the year, and as we head toward 2015, number of daylight minutes starts to climb. Of course, we really won't notice the longer days for at least a month or so.

At this time of year, we are closer to the sun than during the summer. The Northern Hemisphere is much colder due to the tilt of our planet of 23.5 degrees away from the sun. In the Southern Hemisphere, their summer, the sun is directly overhead at the Tropic of Capricorn, which is 23.5 degrees South Latitude. On the first day of summer, the sun will be overhead at 23.5 degrees in the Northern Hemisphere, at the Tropic of Cancer. Believe it or not, the actual date when the Earth is closest to the sun is approximately Jan. 3.

Thanks to El Nino and the above normal sunspot totals, we are calling for between 25 and 40 percent less snowfall than usual for the winter of 2014-15 across the Inland Empire. Here are the updated snowfall figures:

1. The area ski resorts should measure between 165 inches at Mt. Spokane to as much as 360 inches of snow at Lookout Pass along the Idaho/Montana border.

2. Priest Lake: 71 to 76 inches.

3. Spirit Lake: 68 to 73 inches.

4. Twin Lakes: 66 to 71 inches.

5. Rathdrum: 65 to 70 inches.

6. Sandpoint: 64 to 69 inches.

7. Wallace: 63 to 68 inches.

8. Hauser Lake: 62 to 67 inches.

9. Kellogg (town): 61 to 66 inches.

10. Hayden Lake (above 2,400 feet): 59 to 64 inches.

11. Athol/Garwood: 58 to 63 inches.

12. Hayden (town): 57 to 62 inches.

13. NW Coeur d'Alene (my station on Player Drive): 54 to 59 inches.

14. Fernan Lake: 52 to 57 inches.

15. Dalton Gardens: 51 to 56 inches.

16. Kalispell, Mont.: 51 to 56 inches.

17. St. Maries: 50 to 55 inches.

18. Hope: 46 to 51 inches.

19. Coeur d'Alene (downtown near The Coeur d'Alene Resort): 42 to 47 inches.

20. Post Falls: 40 to 45 inches.

21. Missoula, Mont.: 40 to 45 inches.

22. Harrison: 39 to 44 inches.

23. Spokane (South Hill): 37 to 42 inches.

24. Bayview: 36 to 41 inches.

25. Spokane Valley: 35 to 40 inches.

26. Spokane International Airport: 34 to 39 inches.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

As of this Friday morning writing, Dec. 19, we had only gauged a puny 2.3 inches of snow on Player Drive in Coeur d'Alene the entire fall season with even less of the white stuff near warmer Lake Coeur d'Alene in the 90-day period.

As I said in the main article, we've been "too mild for snow" at elevations below 2,500 feet thus far this balmy 2014-15 snowfall season, thanks mainly to the warm 'El Nino' event in the tepid waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. When we get moisture, the air flow aloft is usually from the southwest. When temperatures cool down to near-normal, we don't have enough moisture left for anything but 'skiffs' of snow like we saw earlier this week.

We do see some colder temperatures pushing into the region later this week just ahead of Christmas. But, once again, there will be limited amounts of moisture and only scattered snow showers or flurries. The chances of a beautiful 'WHITE CHRISTMAS,' as mentioned earlier, are still less than 50/50, but possible. So PRAY FOR SNOW! Merry Christmas!!!

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com