2014 should be an 'active' hurricane season

Randy Mann and I see a rather 'active' hurricane and tropical storm season this year, very similar to the 2010-2012 seasons when there were 19 named storms each year. Last year, in 2013, we had a near-normal 16 named storms ending with 'Karen' in early October. The normal is 10 named storms.

The most significant hurricane during the past four years to hit the U.S. was Hurricane 'Sandy' in late October and early November of 2012. Sandy turned out to be the second costliest hurricane in U.S. history at more than $2 billion in damages. Only Hurricane 'Katrina' in 2005 had greater total damage, more than $5 billion. I should likewise mention that the 2005 hurricane season had an all-time record 28 named storms.

This time around, we're predicting somewhere between 16 and 20 named storms. Approximately nine of these tropical storms will become hurricanes. At least three of the hurricanes will reach a damaging Category 3 status. One or two of these strong hurricanes could strike the U.S. either in the Gulf states or along the southeastern coastline in Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. But, we don't see another killer hurricane like Sandy hitting the northeastern U.S. this 2014 season. A rather cool, moist flow from the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada should push any Atlantic hurricanes well out to sea away from New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic regions.

The normal Atlantic and Caribbean tropical storm and hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends nearly six months later on Nov. 30. But, we've had named tropical storms as early as April and as late as January, especially during this stormy period of wide weather 'extremes.'

According to Randy, the latest sea-surface ocean temperature data shows that we're still in the in-between stages of a warmer 'El Nino' and cooler 'La Nina,' a 'La Nada' event. But, a new warmer 'El Nino' may be declared sometime this fall or during the winter of 2014-15. If it arrives earlier than expected, it could cut the hurricane season short, because El Ninos often sheer the tops off tropical storms preventing further intensification. Once again, only time will tell.

CALIFORNIA'S DROUGHT COVERS THE ENTIRE STATE

It was announced on Thursday that California's worst drought in at least 510 years covers virtually the entire state. The most expensive dryness, however, is in the southern half of California from Kern County into the L.A. Basin region. Huge cuts in critical supplies of irrigation water to farmers and ranchers are likely this summer.

The normal six-month dry season begins in May and doesn't end until sometime in November, late October at the earliest. We foresee many large forest and brush fires in California and the rest of the parched Far West this 2014 fire season.

But, if we do see a new warm and wet El Nino develop this fall and winter in 2014-15, it could finally mean some significant drought relief for the Golden State and the parched Southwest.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

Be glad that you live in North Idaho, because unlike much of the parched Far West, including all of California, there is no drought this spring in beautiful 'Camelot.'

Despite a two-week dry spell and a 'boatload of sunshine' during the first half of April, the second half of the month has been extremely wet with cooler than normal temperatures that produced some measurable amounts of snow early this past Wednesday morning, April 23, above 2,200 feet in the lowlands. Another chilly cold front was expected to bring a few more flakes of snow to the region early Sunday, April 27. Many areas near Coeur d'Alene, though, will see mostly cold rains and the possibility of an afternoon thunderstorm with pea-sized hail and strong, gusty winds.

While there will be some lingering rain showers in North Idaho early this coming week, at the very end of April, the beginning of May, like early April, should be quite warm with afternoon highs in the lower 70s and only widely scattered shower activity in the Inland Empire.

The spring rains, which will include more thunderstorms, should return to North Idaho by the second week of May into the 'full moon' lunar phase of May 14-21. We see 'on-and-off' showers in late May and early June before the arrival of what we expect will be a very warm to hot summer season with little moisture due to a strong high pressure ridge that will be 'camped out' over the Inland Northwest for weeks-on-end into at least mid September, maybe later. Stay tuned for further updates.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com