Another ice age is coming, but who knows when

My friend Cecil Hathaway sent me a rather interesting article entitled, "How to Make a Great Ice Age, Again and Again and Again."

A recent issue of Science Magazine contained this article written by famed paleoclimatologist Ayako Abe-Ouchi of the University of Tokyo and her colleagues.

By extensive computer modeling, Dr. Abe-Ouchi was able to confirm that the climate of the Earth is basically controlled by a "rhythmic stretching of our planet's egg-shaped orbit around the sun every 100,000 years."

This 100,000-year cycle amplifies the influence of a second orbital cycle, the 23,000-year 'wobble' of the Earth's spin axis. These two cycles jointly control and drive the cycles of buildup and decay of the polar ice sheets and therefore global climate. Mankind is irrelevant.

Dr. Abe-Ouchi, who also wrote an article for Nature Magazine in August, says that her climate model shows that there is a long-term recurring cycle of "gradual changes in the distribution of sunlight around the globe." This factor, combined with orbital variations of our planet, along with swings in atmospheric carbon dioxide, have been recorded in polar ice core samples detailing the various ice ages that came and went in the glacial historical period.

Dr. Abe-Ouchi's climate model shows that periodically, "an increasingly warm 100,000-year cycle combines with an orbit-wobbling 23,000-year cycle to give added summer warmth like we're now seeing in the high northern latitudes."

Each ice age tends to melt quicker than the previous ice age, because the melting occurs in warmer deeper holes carved out by the retreating glaciers.

When will the next great ice age arrive? According to Japanese, Russian, European and various U.S. climatologists, it could happen sometime later this century or even as early as 2020-2025. Only time will tell.

Next week: A question from Sharon Harris. "Where are all the BIRDS?" They've vanished in some areas!

ONE LATE WEATHER NOTE

The Arctic ice is beginning to grow again after a record 2012 melt. This August, the icepack was "30 percent greater than last year," according to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center. I'll have a more detailed update in my Sept. 30 'Gems' column after the start of the fall season.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

As of this Friday the 13th writing, record heat continues to bake North Idaho and the rest of the Inland Empire. Thursday's high of 94 degrees in Coeur d'Alene broke the previous record for Sept. 12 of 92 degrees in 1973. Fernan Lake had a blistering 95 degrees.

We are expecting our 35th day this torrid summer of 2013 with afternoon highs at or above 90 degrees, then a cooloff early this next week with showers. This has been the hottest summer locally since 2006 when there were 43 'Sholeh Days.'

Longer-term, due to a possible strong 'La Nina' sea-surface temperature event in the waters of the Pacific Ocean, both Randy Mann and I see a wetter and cooler October 2013 through March 2014 180-day period developing across North Idaho and the rest of the neighboring Inland Empire.

The Maritime Polar Jet Stream should become quite active across the Pacific Northwest southward into Northern California later this fall and winter. It's possible that we could see more than THREE FEET OF SNOW locally in the Coeur d'Alene area and upwards of six to seven feet of snow in the nearby mountain ski resorts during the six-week weather cycle from mid-November through the Christmas holidays.

It is my intention to buy a larger snowblower this fall due to this growing threat of increased snowfall in our part of the country.

If we continue to see a colder than normal Pacific Ocean at the same time that sunspots decrease following a recent 'maxima' phase, we could be in for the coldest and snowiest winter season since at least 2008-09 when a whopping 145.6 inches of snow fell between late October and early April. The previous winter of 2007-08, with an incredible 172.9 inches of snow, was the snowiest winter in Coeur d'Alene since at least the inception of local weather records in 1895.

ANOTHER HEAT RECORD FALLS

We broke another heat record on a muggy Sunday. We hit 93 degrees at 2:40 p.m. on Player Drive in town, which broke the previous record for Sept. 15 of 92 degrees in 1938. This was also our 37th day of 90 degrees or above this summer, the hottest summer since 2006.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com