The 'bellwether' continent of Antarctica is seeing record sea ice

As I mentioned last week, Antarctic sea ice in late September hit a 35-year record high in total volume exceeding the previous record set a year ago in 2012 during September.

On Saturday, Sept. 28, the icepack reached 19.51 million square kilometers, according to data posted on the National Snow and Ice Data Center website. That figure topped the 19.48 million square kilometers set on Sept. 23, 2012. Records on Antarctic sea ice began in October of 1978.

According to a new study in the Journal of Climate by a University of Washington scientist, Jinlum Zhang, "strengthening and converging winds around the South Pole can explain 80 percent of the puzzling increase in Antarctic sea ice."

Zhang adds, "the polar vortex that swirls around the South Pole is not just stronger than it was when satellite observations were begun in the late 1970s, but it likewise has more 'convergence,' meaning it shoves the sea icepacks together causing ridging. This creates thicker, longer-lasting ice while exposing surrounding open waters and thin ice to blisteringly cold winds that result in additional ice growth."

Not only has the Antarctic sea ice been increasing in recent years, but scientists have likewise witnessed a similar growth of the continental land ice, particularly in the eastern half of Antarctica.

Antarctic cold fronts have been pushing much farther north than usual during the winter months, sometimes actually reaching areas of South America north of the Equator.

This past winter across much of South America was one of the coldest and snowiest winter seasons on record dating back, in some cases, more than 200 years. Parts of northern Argentina, Paraguay and southeastern Brazil saw their first measurable snowfalls in at least a century. A hard freeze last month in central Argentina killed at least 22 percent of the 2013 winter wheat crop.

Australia and New Zealand likewise had colder than normal winter temperatures as did parts of South Africa, where 'rare' snowfalls fell in Johannesburg. Some glaciers in extreme southern Argentina and Chile, as well as in New Zealand, are showing "definite signs" of advancing after an extended period of retreat.

Record snows this October have fallen in Japan, extreme northern China, Europe and here in the U.S., where upwards of four feet of snow killed a record 270,000 cattle in South Dakota alone. Some ranchers lost nearly their entire herds.

It's quite possible, if the chilly 'La Nina' sea-surface temperature event holds on to life in the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, that much of China, Japan, North America and Europe will have a harsher than normal winter of 2013-14. Only time will tell as usual.

Next week in 'Gems,' I'll have my annual city-by-city snowfall outlooks for the fast-approaching winter season. There may be a few surprises. Stay tuned.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

As of this Wednesday, Oct. 23 writing, we hadn't seen a drop of rain locally in North Idaho for two full weeks thanks to a strong high pressure ridge centered over the Intermountain West.

The current stagnant weather pattern of foggy mornings and sunny afternoons reminds me of the type of weather that San Francisco sees during the summer months with afternoon highs in the lower 60s after the fog burns off.

But, we do see cooler temperatures and frosty conditions this Halloween week with the dry weather continuing into early November just ahead of a major weather change across the Inland Northwest that should arrive sometime during the Nov. 3-10 'new moon' lunar phase.

At this time, we should see the return of September's mountain snows and possibly even the first valley wet snows of the 2013-14 season above 2,300 feet, maybe even at lower elevations north of I-90.

We're still expecting our first major snowfall of this season to occur sometime around the pre-Thanksgiving 'full moon' cycle of Nov. 17-25. Several inches of the white stuff should blanket the valley floor with upwards of a 'foot' or more of snow in the nearby mountain ski resorts. There's still a good chance that the Lookout Pass Ski Resort on the Idaho/Montana border may open up by the Nov. 28 to Dec. 1 Thanksgiving weekend.

The first half of this fast-approaching winter of 2013-14 should be a bit colder and snowier than normal thanks to slightly cooler sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Alaska.

But, as we mentioned last week, if we see the development of a new milder 'La Nada' or even a weak 'El Nino' warmer than normal event in the Pacific waters, the second half of this winter may actually see less snowfall than usual. We're already starting to see indications of that happening. Once again, only time will tell.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com