Future seems good for local real estate

When attempting to predict the future market we often look at performance in other areas. Particularly we look to the west, beyond Spokane to see what is happening as a prelude to what we can expect here. That is why we were excited to hear, at Wednesday morning's Urban Land Institute presentation, that Seattle is considered one of the top 10 markets in the United States for growth potential in 2014. Actually, Seattle was listed as No. 6 of "U.S. Markets to watch" for investors.

That is important to us because historically, what happens in Seattle happens here, eventually. Many of you will recall the run up of pricing in real estate, from 2004 through 2007. Those increases actually had their origins in the San Francisco Bay area, one of the first to experience the boom that would become a feeding frenzy. "The roll" as economists sometimes refer to it, begins in the Bay area, travels up the west coast to Seattle and then creeps East along the Interstate 90 corridor. We witnessed the same phenomena with the recession and erosion of housing prices as foreclosed properties began competing for buyers at discounted prices. Other markets fell before, faster and further than ours.

At times we feel a bit sheltered from the outside world here in North Idaho. When it comes to real state we do appear somewhat of an odd duck. You already know that our market is recovering well and that we believe that we have reached near normal conditions. Some other parts of the country are also doing very well while others languish, waiting their turn for a recovery.

Our experience this year has actually seen us heading out of the down market at a respectable pace. We are not exclusive in that recovery by any means but the Spokane market has not kept our pace. Across the West we see recovery but many locations without the apparent strength of our own.

Now comes the report that the winter market overall is promising to be one of the best. A report from realtor.com (owned in part by the National Association of Realtors) that was released on Thursday gives hope that our current trends may only be the beginning of a steady flow of buyers. In part, the report states:

"This summer and spring, home-buying season was particularly challenging for buyers, especially first-time homebuyers trying to compete with all-cash offers and bidding wars because of reduced inventory," says Alison Schwartz, vice president of corporate communications at realtor.com. "In fact, a quarter of the winter home buyers revealed they are in the market now because they were unable to find a home during this last homebuying season."

We did in fact, have many buyers challenged by investors or other cash buyers early in the year. The competition has been reduced somewhat since new construction is once again, generating new inventory. Our latest statistics show that new construction accounted for 16 percent of our single family homes sales for the year at October's end. That represents a 25 percent increase in new construction sales over the prior year.

Still, for those who prefer a previously owned home in a mature neighborhood, the search can be challenging. Competition from investors may have slowed due to the performance of the stock market of late. The diminishing supply of foreclosed properties and short sale opportunities have led to some price stabilization that leaves fewer deep discounts that attract many investors.

Your Realtor can still help you find the right home at the right price in the right neighborhood, but it will require some patience. By all accounts we are still high on the affordability index for residential real estate.

Trust an expert...call a Realtor. Call your Realtor or visit www.cdarealtors.com to search properties on the Multiple Listing Service or to find a Realtor member who will represent your best interests.

Kim Cooper is a real estate broker and the spokesman for the Coeur d'Alene Association of Realtors. Kim and the association invite your feedback and input for this column. You may contact them by writing to the Coeur d'Alene Association of Realtors, 409 W. Neider, Coeur d'Alene, ID 83815 or by calling (208) 667-0664.