Our city-by-city winter of 2013-14 snowfall predictions

It's that time of the year, folks.

Every early November, we issue our annual city-by-city snowfall predictions for North Idaho and surrounding areas of the Inland Empire.

Last winter, in 2012-13, we measured 73.6 inches of snow for the season, a bit above the 118-year average snowfall for Coeur d'Alene since 1895 of 69.8 inches.

It seems that it's either 'feast or famine' when it comes to snowfall in the Inland Northwest. These 'extremes' in the amounts of the white stuff usually depend upon the prevailing sea-surface temperature event in the eastern Pacific Ocean waters as well as other weather factors like solar activity, 'sunspots,' and the various jet stream flows across the Far West.

For example, during a very chilly 'La Nina' sea-surface temperature pattern in the harsh winter of 2007-08, when there were also very few sunspots, we gauged an all-time record 172.9 inches of snow on Player Drive. The next winter of 2008-09 was the second snowiest on record in Coeur d'Alene with a whopping 145.6 inches.

The two winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09 back-to-back produced an incredible 318.5 inches of snow in town, more than 100 inches greater than the previous two-year total of 217.6 inches combined in 1915-16 and 1916-17.

A record number of building collapses occurred in our region of the country between December of 2007 and January of 2009, when I had to have my roof shoveled off twice!

Then, by extreme contrast, thanks to a warm, wet 'El Nino' phenomenon in the waters of the eastern Pacific, our total snowfall of the entire winter of 2009-10 was a mere 18.4 inches, a whopping 51.4 inches below the normal on Player Drive of 69.8 inches. What a difference a year makes, weatherwise and otherwise. I only had to use my snowblower just once all winter!

Despite forecasts of "an extremely snowy winter in the North Country" by the Old Farmers Almanac and other weather prognosticators, Randy Mann and I see only slightly above normal snowfall this winter across the region since we are now in a calmer 'La Nada' sea-surface event following the demise of the recent chilly and wet 'La Nina' in the Pacific Ocean west of South America.

For this reason, along with the fact that we're still seeing above normal numbers of sunspots, solar activity, we are calling for between 10 percent and 20 percent more snowfall than usual for the fast-approaching winter of 2013-14 across the Inland Empire.

1. The area ski resorts should measure between 205 inches at Mt. Spokane to as much as 440 inches of snow this winter of 2013-14 near the Idaho/Montana border at Lookout Pass.

2. Priest Lake: 95 to 100 inches.

3. Spirit Lake: 93 to 98 inches.

4. Twin Lakes: 92 to 97 inches.

5. Rathdrum: 91 to 96 inches.

6. Sandpoint: 90 to 95 inches.

7. Wallace: 89 to 94 inches.

8. Hauser Lake: 87 to 92 inches.

9. Kellogg (town): 86 to 91 inches.

10. Hayden Lake (above 2,400 feet): 85 to 90 inches.

11. Athol/Garwood: 83 to 88 inches.

12. Hayden (town): 82 to 87 inches.

13. NW Coeur d'Alene (my station on Player Drive): 81 to 86 inches.

14. Fernan Lake: 79 to 84 inches.

15. Dalton Gardens: 78 to 83 inches.

16. St. Maries: 77 to 82 inches.

17. Kalispell, Mont.: 75 to 80 inches.

18. Hope: 74 to 79 inches.

19. Coeur d'Alene (Downtown near the Cd'A Resort): 69 to 74 inches.

20. Post Falls: 66 to 71 inches.

21. Harrison: 65 to 70 inches.

22. Missoula, Mont.: 62 to 67 inches.

23. Spokane (South Hill): 60 to 65 inches.

24. Bayview: 58 to 63 inches.

25. Spokane Valley: 57 to 62 inches.

26. Spokane International Airport: 55 to 60 inches.

As usual, I reserve the right to raise or lower these projections later this fall if I see major changes in sea-surface temperatures or sunspot activity. Stay tuned ...

Next week in 'Gems,' I'll feature the Ten Snowiest Winters since 1895 and the Ten Most Snowless 'Open' Winters in Coeur d'Alene.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

October 2013, thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Intermountain West, was a much drier than normal month across North Idaho and the rest of the Inland Empire. The demise of the cool, wet 'La Nina' in the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean gave us an extended period of brilliant afternoon sunshine after the fog burned off, almost like a summer in San Francisco.

We measured a mere .62 inches of precipitation the entire month, a whopping 1.60 less than the October norm of 2.22 inches and last October's healthy 2.98 inches of moisture on our way to an all-time record rainfall total of 43.27 inches by Dec. 31, 2012. Never before had Coeur d'Alene, at least since 1895, received more than 38.77 inches of moisture, and that was in the flood and ice storm year of 1996.

October was a mild month as well with a warm 70 degree reading observed on Oct. 6, my mother Muriel's 97th birthday. Our coldest morning was Oct. 29 at 25 degrees, which produced our first hard freeze of the fall season.

Halloween wasn't too chilly for the 'trick or treaters' of all ages, and there wasn't any rain or snow, or fog, for that matter. The skies were mostly clear and the winds were light. (We did see one fellow with a real beard! He must have been in his mid 20s. I guess that times are really tough!)

Speaking of snow, our observers in the Spirit Lake and Twin Lakes areas reported their first measurable snowfalls of the 2013-14 season on Sunday night, Oct. 27. The totals of the white stuff were generally light, less than two inches.

We may see some additional lowland snowfalls sometime prior to Veterans Day, but the first major snowfall of the season probably won't arrive until just before Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 28. (It's late this year.)

But, I'm taking no chances. Sharon is getting the snow tires put on this morning, Monday, Nov. 4, about 10 days earlier than usual.

As mentioned in the main article, Randy Mann and I are expecting the first half of this upcoming winter season to be snowier than the second half due to the 'lag effect' in the sea-surface warming ocean temperature pattern 'La Nada.' Stay tuned for further details.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com