An active hurricane season is expected

Cliff and I see another active tropical storm and hurricane season may be just around the meteorological corner. Many hurricane forecasters, including us, believe this upcoming season has the potential to approach 20 named storms.

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most active season. It tied with 1887, 1995, 2010 and 2011 with a total of 19 storms. In 2005, there were 28 named storms. The most significant storm last year was Hurricane Sandy, which was the second costliest U.S. hurricane with about $2 billion in damages. Hurricane Katrina, in 2005 during the record hurricane and tropical storm season, was the most costly in history.

The tropical storm and hurricane season begins on June 30 and ends on Nov. 30. However, there were two named storms that developed last May. Alberto and Beryl started the 2012 season and Beryl caused some minor flooding when it struck North Florida.

The latest sea-surface temperature data shows a La Nada, the in-between cooler La Nina and warmer El Nino, ocean waters. However, a new La Nina may be declared very soon. During El Nino years, the number of tropical storms and hurricanes are often less than normal as the change in wind patterns will sheer off the tops of the tropical storms and prevent their development. By contrast, during La Nina and La Nada years, the number of tropical storms and hurricanes are usually higher than average.

In addition to the La Nada pattern, readings are slightly higher off the coast of Africa where the tropical storms develop. Ocean waters are also a bit warmer in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Many forecasters are predicting an above average number of named storms with winds at or greater than 39 miles per hour for 2013.

Cliff and I see approximately 15 to 19 named storms with 7 to 9 of them becoming hurricanes. Four or five of these potentially deadly storms are expected to become major hurricanes, reaching at least a Category 3 status. The overall average is 11 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes during an entire season.

The biggest threat of landfall this season is along the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern coastline from Florida to the Carolinas. There may be at least 2 or 3 hurricanes make landfall in 2013. High pressure to the north should hold many of these massive storms south of the Mid-Atlantic States. However, late in the season, around mid October to early November, there could be another Category 1 or 2 storm that moves up the East Coast. In 2011, there was Hurricane Irene, 2012 had monster Hurricane Sandy, so there is the possibility of a third big storm later this year. Stay tuned.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

We finally received some significant moisture across the Inland Empire last week. As of early Thursday, many areas received over a half-inch of moisture. Talk about extremes, though, the afternoon high temperature on Tuesday, May 21, was a warm 79 degrees. On Wednesday, the next day, the high was only 49 degrees, a 30-degree drop.

We will likewise be hotter and drier than normal in our part of the country during the 90-day period from June 15 through Sept.13. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a couple of afternoons this July or early August near triple digit levels in Coeur d'Alene.

In the meantime, we should see a pattern of 'sun and showers' persisting for the next three to four weeks. The first two weeks of this May set a record for the number of hours with sunshine locally in town at an incredible 141 hours, averaging 10 hours of sunshine per day. That was more sunshine than we saw all of last May.