Our La Nada could be a new La Nina later this year
The latest sea-surface temperature data indicates that ocean temperatures off the West Coast of South America and along the Equatorial regions are only slightly below normal levels for the past week. Most cooler regions are about a degree Fahrenheit below normal with some isolated pockets of 2 to 3 degrees below average levels. Within the last several days, however, the area of cooler waters has expanded, but it looks like we're still in a La Nada (in-between El Nino and La Nina) event, at least for now.
If the expansion continues for another 2-4 weeks, then we may be seeing a new La Nina by the late winter or early spring season.
By contrast, there are a few computer models that project that we may see a rebound to warmer sea-surface temperatures during around the by the mid portion of 2013. However, indications are building to a brief and weak La Nina event for the late winter and spring season. Toward the middle to the end of this year, the latest computer models project a good chance of additional cooling that would lead to a new or stronger La Nina sea-surface temperature phenomenon once again.
The La Nada event is being blamed, at least in part, to the record heat in southern Australia. On Monday, Jan. 14, Australia had its hottest day on record with a nationwide temperature of 104.6 degrees Fahrenheit (40.33 Celsius), breaking the 1972 record of 104.3 degrees Fahrenheit (40.17 degrees Celsius). The searing temperatures led to over 200 wildfires across Australia's southeastern region. Cooler conditions later in the week did bring some relief to area firefighters.
Ocean temperature are still below normal levels in the Gulf of Alaska. As these readings moderate, based on the current forecasts, moisture should increase in the dry areas of Great Plains over the next several months. This new pattern would likely shrink the major drought over the nation's midsection during the spring season. In 2012, severe drought in this area has been classified one of the worst since the 'Dust Bowl Days' of the 1930s.
Also, with the cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures, the chances of a freeze in Florida are about 40 percent in late January or early February.
SOLAR STORMS HAVE RISEN DRAMATICALLY WITHIN THE LAST WEEK
As we get closer to the 'expected peak' of new solar 'maxima' cycle within the next several months, it has become obvious that this cycle will not be as strong as the last event in the late 1990s, despite the spike in recent numbers.
In mid November, sunspot numbers jumped to above 150 solar storms. The highest figure was 163 storms on Nov. 17. On Dec. 7, there were a meager 23 solar storms, very low numbers indeed as the sun is supposed to heading toward the peak of its 'maxima' cycle. However, our sun has become more active as the latest figures show the highest number of solar storms in years.
On Jan. 7, 2013, the number of solar storms soared to a whopping 196 sunspots. The latest figures have been around 150 solar storms. This new information indicates that the sun's 'maxima' cycle is currently at its peak or will soon reach that point in the coming weeks.
In the late 1990s, there were an average of 200 to 300 sunspots per day for months-on-end. During this time, the Earth's temperature reached its peak in 1998. As we move toward late January and February, we will likely see more sunspot fluctuations with sunspot numbers over 100. Stay tuned.
NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK
Last week, over 10 inches of snow fell in Coeur d'Alene. The 2012-13 total is now at 51.1 inches. The normal is a little less than 40 inches.
High pressure should keep our region mostly dry and chilly this week, but moisture is likely to start increasing in late January and early February.
I still see a 2012-13 snowfall total for the entire season near or slightly above 80 inches, again very close to the 83.4 inch total last season in 2011-12. But, as usual, only time will tell.