What's next for Vandals?

Before Boise State's surprising announcement to remain in the Mountain West Conference, the future of Idaho football was murky at best.

Now, with athletic directors across the country rushing to the phones to deal with the butterfly effect of BSU's decision to spurn the Big East, the next few years for the Vandals are foggier than ever.

"We're kind of in the same boat as the Sun Belt because we need to wait and see if there are any openings," Idaho athletic director Rob Spear said. "What happens in the Big East and Conference USA impacts other schools and we're waiting for the fallout."

Despite Mountain West Commissioner Craig Thompson saying he would not admit Idaho or New Mexico State into his conference, there was still some speculation the departures of Boise State and San Diego State could pave the way for the Vandals and Aggies to become members.

However, with the Broncos and Aztecs apparently staying west, any door which might have been open for Idaho has been effectively slammed shut.

"Ideally we probably would have liked Boise State to stay in the Big East. It would have provided us with some opportunities to get into the Mountain West," Spear said. "We've asked three times to get in and they've said no because of the lack of television sets in our region, at least that's publicly the reason they gave us."

Spear said the news isn't all bad. With schools around the country realigning, a return to the Sun Belt is looking more and more likely.

"They appear to be in a situation where they need to wait to see what the fallout is going to be from their prospective," Spear said. "For the Big East, what happens to them? Do they grab some teams from the Sun Belt or Conference USA? Do they reach into the MAC?

"The Sun Belt is in a wait-and-see mode. Conference USA is meeting, from my understanding, on Jan. 15 to discuss going from 14 teams to 16 teams - that could mean they will take some Sun Belt schools or some MAC schools. All of it is driven by money. We still don't know what's going to happen to the Big East because they haven't negotiated a television deal and they can't really do that if they don't know which teams they'll have."

Sun Belt Commissioner Karl Benson is well acquainted with Idaho as he used to be the commissioner of the Western Athletic Conference. Spear said he and Benson have had several conversations about Idaho joining the Sun Belt in the near future.

"Karl said he wants to get to 12 teams to create a conference where there are two divisions so they can have a conference championship game and create some more revenue," Spear said. "Are we one of the schools they would consider? Certainly. But the biggest issue is (distance) - look where we're located and look where they are located."

With most schools in the Sun Belt Conference being located in the Deep South, the logistics of playing other sports in that conference would be "almost impossible," according to Spear. However, football is the one sport which can accommodate such demanding travel times due to the frequency and regularity of games.

"We've done it before when we played football in the Sun Belt," Spear said. "But a big part of why we moved to the Big Sky for our other sports is so we could take care of our student-athletes, cut down on our travel costs and still be in a Division I league, which will be better than a rebuilt WAC."

Spear said while it probably won't happen in the near future, he believes the best solution for Idaho would be a complete restructuring of the conferences into three tiers.

"The lack of FBS schools in this half of the country is an issue," Spear said. "Do I think some schools should move up? Absolutely. At some point and time will Idaho, Montana, Montana State, possibly Eastern Washington and Portland State be in the same league? It could happen. If it does, I hope it will be an FBS type league. ... All the BCS schools would form one tier while the Idahos and Montanas would form another tier - I know the Big Sky commissioner would like that - and the third tier would be the FCS schools."

In the end, winning football games is one of the most important things a program needs to do in order to become an asset to a conference, so while the swirling uncertainties of realignment dance across the country, Spear said Idaho needs to just focus on improving the football program.

"The data shows that we had the second-best program in the Western Athletic Conference last year," Spear said. "If you look at the Commissioner's Cup, Fresno beat us in the end because they were able to count 17 sports while we only have 16. We were actually ahead until the spring when their baseball program got them five points. Unfortunately, football overshadows the performance of all other sports."

Spear added he is confident the Vandals can turn around their struggling program, and he remains optimistic about the future.

"We need to do a better job with football and I think we've taken that step by hiring Paul Petrino," he said. "He has a business-like approach, discipline and toughness that I think is going to help that program."