It looks like we're now in a 'La Nada'

As of early December, sea-surface temperatures near the West Coast of South America are averaging relatively close to normal levels, indicating that we are in a La Nada, the in-between warmer El Nino and cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature event. But, looking at the entire globe, there are more warmer than cooler waters, especially near Australia and in the Gulf of Alaska.

In fact, the sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska are much warmer than average and continue to climb. Low pressure systems often form near these regions of warmer waters. This may be one reason why we've had this extreme weather pattern across the country since early November as high pressure ridges will be enhanced to the east of the strong low pressure systems, like the one in the Gulf of Alaska. As the high builds, much colder air from the north comes down off the high, like a ball rolling off a table, sending temperatures to well below normal levels.

Within the last six weeks, there have been areas of slightly warmer and cooler than normal temperatures along the equator near the South American coastline. This is a type of pattern we don't see very often when there are both warmer and cooler waters in this region. But, the temperatures are only slightly above average levels.

This new pattern of ocean temperatures may also be responsible for enhancing the big late-season storms that we've seen with the super typhoon and the tornado outbreak in November and the big cold in our region and the heavy snows in the central U.S. It's very unusual to see these weird types of weather at this time of the year.

Many climate and atmospheric scientists, as well as Cliff and myself, believe that we're going to be in a La Nada sea-surface temperature pattern through the spring of next year. Toward the middle of next year, however, a weak El Nino is expected to form based on the latest computer model forecasts. We're already seeing indications of a new and relatively weak El Nino with the increased warmer waters in the Pacific Ocean.

If we stay in a La Nada, there is still a good chance for more colder and snowier weather across the northern U.S., including North Idaho and especially east of the Rockies. Temperatures have already plunged to much below zero levels in the far north and into the single digits southward to I-70. Even California has seen rare low elevation snowfalls from this recent Arctic outbreak.

SOLAR STORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AND THE SUN'S 'FLIPPING'

By Meteorologist Randy Mann

Our sun continues to be in it's 'maxima' phase, which occurs every 11 years. Since early October, solar storms have been averaging above 100 with the latest figure at 105 sunspots. The highest number of solar storms from this recent cycle occurred on Nov. 17 with a whopping 282. During the late 1990s, the sun was averaging about 200 solar storms per day when global temperatures were rising. This new solar cycle is not nearly as strong as the one in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

The new La Nada and sudden increase in solar activity within the last several months may be another factor to the extreme weather conditions seen since November. Based on current forecasts, more unusual conditions are expected into early 2014, but things could calm down a bit as the sunspot cycle starts to decrease in the next few months.

The higher number of sunspots is also contributed to the change in the sun's polarity. The star's northern polarity has already reversed and the southern hemisphere should do the same very soon. A polarity reversal is a change in the sun's magnetic field that builds up over time. The process usually takes 11 years. This occurs when a sunspot spreads out, causing the sun's magnetic field to migrate from the equator to one of it's poles. As this change occurs, the sun's magnetic field reduces to zero and then comes back with the opposite polarity. If this were to happen on Earth, magnetic north would become magnetic south.

The change the sun's polarity also means higher solar activity. However, the change in polarity does not relate to the increased number of solar flares. And, the sun's change should not harmfully impact our planet thanks to the electomagnetic field that surrounds our planet.

Despite the recent rise of sunspots, we should move back toward a trend of lower solar storms toward the beginning of 2014. If the number of sunspots lowers to the 50s and 60s by the end of 2013, then it's quite possible that we could see another round of few, if any, sunspots later in 2014 when our sun heads toward its new 'minima' cycle.

By the way, many solar scientists predict that the new 'minima' cycle that's expected to peak around the early 2020s, should bring Earth's temperature down as our sun is forecast to produce very few sunspots. The last minima cycle led to all-time record snows in our region and across the norther U.S. in the late 2000s. Stay tuned.

U.S. AND NORTH IDAHO COLD SPELL UPDATE

By Climatologist Cliff Harris

Much of the North American continent, including North Idaho and the Inland Empire, had been in the icy grip of Old Man Winter for a full week as of this Saturday morning, December 7 writing. The duration of the cold snap was 'unprecedented' for so early in the season.

We set a new record low for the date earlier today of 1 degree above zero on Player Drive, breaking the previous record of 2 degrees in 2005. Even colder readings were due for Sunday morning, Dec. 8, across the region. Early Saturday, Spokane reported a record low of 3 degrees.

While we indeed were bitterly cold with dangerous wind chill factors of minus-10 to minus-20 degrees in the region, it was MUCH COLDER east of the Rockies from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southward deep into the heart of Texas and the Desert Southwest.

For example, both Circle, Montana and Lethbridge, Alberta each plunged to record lows of minus-41 degrees, actual air, early Saturday morning. The wind chill factors near the U.S./Canada border were as low as minus-53 degrees. Exposed flesh at these temperatures freezes in less than 15 minutes! (Where's that dumb 'global warming' when you need it?)

Other record lows for early December across the continent included; minus-38 degrees at both Edmonton, Alberta, and Jordan, Mont. It was minus-38 degrees both early Friday and early Saturday at Havre, Mont. Great Falls had its coldest reading ever for so early in the season of minus-32 degrees early Saturday. Grand Forks, N.D., Bemidji, Minn., and Valentine, Neb., each logged bitter minus-26 degree readings. It was a record cold minus-13 degrees at Denver both Friday and Saturday mornings. Dodge City, Kansas, dipped to minus-5 degrees early Saturday. Perry, Texas reported minus-1 degree with moderate snow early Saturday. Snow, sleet and freezing rain closed schools, businesses and airports from Dallas, Texas, eastward to Memphis, Tenn., on Friday.

Even California and Arizona saw record lows early this weekend. It was 17 degrees early Saturday at Redding, 25 degrees at Sacramento and 30 degrees at San Jose, which broke the record for Dec. 7 set more than a century ago in 1904. At least six people in California have died from hypothermia during the cold spell. Four others died in Arizona when temperatures plunged to 3 degrees at Flagstaff, 17 degrees at Page, 32 degrees at Tucson and 34 degrees in North Phoenix, where there was a rare frost.

Locally in North Idaho and the Inland Northwest, there will be a slow warming trend this week with increasing amounts of snow, the plowable type. As of early Saturday, despite the record cold, we had gauged just 3.7 inches of snow on Player Drive all autumn, mere 'flurries' like what we saw Thursday evening in town.

Longer-term, the six-week period from mid December through mid January, thanks to a cool, wet 'La Nada' sea-surface temperature event in the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, should be snowier and a bit colder than usual. A brilliant WHITE CHRISTMAS is almost a certainty this year. Ski conditions should be GREAT on the nearby slopes. Stay tuned.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com