We still have 'La Nada,' but it may be 'La Nina' later this year

Since the early portion of 2013, sea-surface temperatures along the South American coastline and the Equatorial regions were slightly cooler than normal. In late February and early March, ocean temperatures were warming and that was starting to look like the formation of a new El Nino. We're still in a La Nada, the in-between cooler La Nina and warmer El Nino. But, most computer forecast models are now leaning toward a new La Nina by the fall season.

The very latest sea-surface temperature data now indicates that ocean waters have cooled along the Equatorial regions. There is little indication of a new El Nino in the near future. Readings are also cooling right along the South American shorelines. Based on this current data, it is starting to look like a new La Nina developing in the second half of this year.

If the computer models are correct, and we do see a new weak to moderate La Nina by late in the year, it's very possible that our region will be facing a colder and snowier winter season in 2013-14.

At this moment, we officially have a La Nada event, but weather patterns have been very extreme. For example, there is severe flooding along the Missouri River, but less than 100 miles to the west, there is drought.

SOLAR STORMS HAVE PICKED UP AGAIN

We're still in the peak of this 11-year solar 'maxima' cycle as sunspot numbers have been high in April. On April 8, there were an impressive 162

storms with 163 storms on April 10. This was one of the highest number of sunspots in months. The latest figure have ranged from approximately 75 to 100 solar storms within the past week.

Scientists still believe that we'll be in the 'expected peak' of new solar 'maxima' cycle by the summer or early fall. Therefore, there may be a few days when sunspot numbers exceed 200. Despite the recent rise, it has become obvious that this cycle will not be as strong as the last event in the late 1990s. Experts still predict an average of about 70 sunspots for 2013.

In the late 1990s, there were an average of 200 to 300 sunspots per day for months on end. During this time, the Earth's temperature reached its maximum in 1998. As we move toward the expected peak, it's likely that we will see more sunspot fluctuations.

Scientists are still warning of potentially damaging solar flares or solar storms over the next 2-4 months. There will likely be additional brief periods of very high solar activity combined with low events of solar activity through the rest of this year.

Although solar activity is the highest in recent years, we're seeing one of the most unusual weather patterns in history. Many stations have reported throughout much of Europe and the U.S. their coldest temperatures ever for the combined months of March and April.

As mentioned in recent columns, it also appears that more wild weather can be expected for the foreseeable future as our pattern of Wide Weather 'Extremes' continues to linger on.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

April will go into the local record books as a month with several hard freezes including the frigid 27 degrees that I observed last Monday on Player Drive.

The 48 degree maximum reading on Sunday, April 21, when we also had a 'trace' of snow, was the coldest we've ever been on that date going back to at least 1895.

Fortunately, as the week progressed, we saw a very welcome warming trend with afternoon highs soaring to near 70 degrees by Thursday and Friday. It was also nice to see the bright, sunny skies.

Our long-range weather outlook still calls for 'sun and showers' for at least the next six to eight weeks through mid June. We have a stubborn 'La Nada' sea-surface temperature event lingering still in the waters of the Pacific Ocean. A La Nada, as mentioned previously, is the in-between phase dividing a warmer than normal 'El Nino from a cooler than usual 'La Nina.'

While there will be some rather chilly periods this spring in May and early to mid June in North Idaho and the rest of the Inland Empire, I do see several afternoons with warm temperatures approaching or even surpassing 80 degrees locally later in May and early June.

The summer of 2013 still looks GREAT weatherwise, warm to hot and mostly sunny with only widely scattered thunderstorm activity mainly in the mountains to the east of us.

All in all, 2013 has been a big improvement weatherwise thus far when compared to the wettest and coolest spring season on record in 2012, which went on to set our all-time wettest year ever since at least 1895, with an incredible 43.27 inches of precipitation by Dec. 31.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com