What happens in October will dictate our winter of 2012-13 weather

There doesn't appear to be any 'normal' type of weather conditions prevailing both locally or globally, only a 'faint line' in the middle of the 'meteorological sands' dividing the wide 'extremes' of climate fare.

For example, in the Coeur d'Alene region, we saw the wettest spring season in town since at least the inception of local area regular weather statistics in 1895. An amazing 15.96 inches of moisture was gauged at my station on Player Drive between late March and late June, nearly doubling the 118-year normal of 8.38 inches. The month of June 2012 was the wettest such period on record with an incredible 5.84 inches of precipitation, more than 'triple' the normal June rainfall since 1895 of 1.93 inches. The 26.48 inches of precipitation locally since Jan. 1 by June 30, was not only a record for the first half of any year since 1895, it nearly matched our normal total for an entire year of 26.77 inches in Coeur d'Alene.

By extreme contrast weatherwise, the July 20, 2012 through this writing, Sept. 20, 2012, 62-day span was the driest such period in recorded history in the Coeur d'Alene area. Only a scant .23 inches of moisture was recorded in a single day on Aug. 21 from scattered thunderstorms. Since then, just a 'trace' of rain was observed early Sunday morning on Sept. 9. Fire-danger levels have remained "dangerously high." Air quality has been poor lately due to frequent smoky and hazy periods from wildfires.

People keep asking me, "Cliff, are we ever going to get some much-needed rain?"

My response has been 'negative' in the short-term, but quite 'positive' in the long-range weather outlooks for the fall and winter six-month period from Oct. 1, 2012 through March 31, 2013.

The previous six driest late July through late September periods since 1895, mostly occurring during warm 'El Nino' sea-surface temperature events like this summer in the waters of the Pacific Ocean, turned much wetter than normal by early to mid October four out of six times. Only Octobers in 1929, our driest year on record with just 15.18 inches of precipitation, and 1967, had less than normal rainfall during the 31-day period ending on Halloween.

October of 1934, following the previous record of just .37 inches of moisture between July 20 and Sept. 20, gauged a whopping 4.63 inches of rainfall, more than double the monthly normal of 2.22 inches since 1895 in Coeur d'Alene.

The second driest July 20 to Sept. 20 on record with .39 inches in 1945 also turned quite wet in October with 3.28 inches.

The other two Octobers following extremely dry late July through late September periods in 1910, the year of the 'big wildfires' in the region, and 2000, had near-normal amounts of rainfall in Coeur d'Alene, so the odds of a wet October are in our favor, at least 6 out of 10.

The fall and winter periods of both 1934-35 and 1945-46 each received more than 20 inches of liquid moisture during the Oct. 1 through March 31 six-month periods. Snowfall was likewise higher than usual in each case averaging between 79 and 84 inches. Our 118-year normal seasonal snowfall in Coeur d'Alene since 1895 has been 69.8 inches. Last winter, in 2011-12, we measured 83.4 inches of the white stuff, mostly in January and February.

Since we began cooling locally in 2006-07, only the winter of 2009-10 had less snowfall than usual in Coeur d'Alene with a puny 18.4 inches measured all winter long on Player Drive. The least snowfall in town since 1895 was during the 1933-34 season with just 11.2 inches.

But, we should remember that the snowiest winter season since at least 1895 in Coeur d'Alene occurred in 2007-08, when many buildings collapsed in Kootenai and Bonner counties in North Idaho. We measured an incredible 172.9 inches of snow that wild winter.

Back to back, the harsh winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09 combined produced a whopping 318.5 inches of snow. That easily topped the previous two-year snowfall mark of 217.6 inches between 1915-16 and 1916-17 by more than 100 inches!

What is my best guess for the next six months weatherwise for Coeur d'Alene and the rest of North Idaho and the surrounding Inland Empire?

Well, October 2012 will tell the meteorological story. If it turns wetter than normal locally by no later than the 'new moon' phase of Oct. 15-22, another damp, and perhaps cold and snowy, late fall and winter season is likely in the region, again one 'extreme' to the other in short order.

The same high pressure ridge that has been 'blocking out' Pacific storm systems for two full months, if it backs up to a point some 800 miles west of Oregon's coastline, should eventually funnel one storm system after another over the Inland Northwest. This would be almost identical to the soggy weather pattern of this past spring.

But, if the ridge holds and doesn't 'break down' as usual after 13 weeks of life, and the 'El Nino' doesn't weaken to a 'La Nada' or even a new 'La Nina,' as some computer models predict, we could see a much drier and milder than normal fall and winter period in late 2012 and early 2013. Only time will tell. We should see a 'major change' well in advance of Halloween, if it is going to occur. Remember, October is the meteorological 'key.' Keep looking up!

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com