What is an 'applied climatologist?'

By popular request, I'm updating a 'GEMS' article that I wrote in March of 2009 on the science of climatology. Here goes, folks. Now you'll know just what AGONY I go through in making my long-range forecasts sometimes six months or more in advance, especially in regards to the winter and summer season outlooks and the annual North Idaho Fair and Rodeo forecasts.

Briefly, at the possible risk of over-simplification, the science of climatology deals with the 'statistical' side of the weather. It involves the long-term research of a particular region's climate. Many vital meteorological factors are studied such as temperature, wind direction and velocity, cloud cover, relative humidity, barometric pressure and precipitation patterns. We also chart sea-surface temperatures in the oceans, particularly in the Pacific (El Nino and La Nina), jet stream patterns, dendrochronology (tree rings), volcanic cycles, tidal cycles, solar 'sunspot' cycles, lunar cycles, etc. etc.

Climatology possesses two rather distinct variables, 'time' and 'space'. The 'time' element concerns the exact period during which the selected weather data is gathered on a long-term basis. The 'space' variable covers the exact area of climatological studies, in other words, the particular weather station's 'location' in regards to the degree of latitude, longitude and altitude. For my weather station in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, it's approximately 47 degrees North Latitude, 117 degrees West Longitude and an elevation of 2,062 feet.

There are likewise 'two' specific areas of study within the science of climatology itself. One is called the 'descriptive' side and the other the 'physical' end. The former is mainly concerned with 'what' happened weatherwise and 'when'. The latter area of study is basically interested in 'why' these particular climatological conditions occurred and 'if' they'll happen again along the same basic patterns or cycles sometime in the future.

I'm quite active in both areas of climatological study because I'm what is called an 'applied' climatologist. In other words, I take what I learn from a specific region's past weather history and attempt to apply this data to what is likely to occur in the climatological future. I likewise present the possible social and economic effects of such long-term predictions in regards to the agricultural, business and commodity markets. I have also consulted with construction people, individuals involved in timber management, pollution control, water usage programs, lake and dam level managers.

For example, just this summer of 2012, my clients made huge profits in corn and soybean 'call' options and futures by buying these positions well ahead of the worst Midwest drought since the infamous 'Dust Bowl Days' of the 1930s.

Applied climatology has developed quite rapidly in recent years and has become an extremely sophisticated science. We climatologists use long-term computer model technology as well as our own climatological forecasting experience. This often means, however, that we 'fly by the seat of our pants'. By contrast, a meteorologist focuses more on the short-term day-to-day aspects of weather forecasting. Meteorology is the study of the atmosphere and its phenomenon and interaction with the earth's surface, oceans and life. Climatology deals with long-term and historical weather events and cycles.

I personally employ that what is commonly referred to as the 'analytical' approach to climatology. This means that I attempt to find a specific 'type' of weather pattern or cycle in the past which most closely corresponds with the prevailing meteorological conditions. Future trends usually tend to follow the same basic lines, about 70-75 percent of the time, of past meteorological and climatological patterns. The real 'trick' is in finding the right matching pattern or cycle. Sometimes I'm quickly able to spot these impending major changes, but at other times, though, I can't seem to 'see the forest for the trees' and it's back to the old drawing board. But, it's the mistakes, the blown forecasts, that increase my climatological knowledge.

Next week in 'Gems,' I'll issue my six-month outlook for the fall and winter seasons of 2012-13. Stay tuned.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

The areas to the north and east of Coeur d'Alene saw their first light frosts of the season at midweek. One weather observer at Twin Lakes reported 29 degrees on Wednesday, Sept. 12. Another observer called in with 31 degrees at his place near Athol. We had 36 degrees at my station on Player Drive early Wednesday.

Temperatures recovered to much higher levels by Thursday afternoon as the mercury, thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure over the Inland Northwest, pushed into the lower 80s with morning lows in the 40s.

As of this Thursday, Sept. 13 writing, there was still no rain in sight. We had only gauged .23 inches locally in town since July 20 from thundershowers on Aug. 21. The total precipitation thus far in September was a mere 'trace' on Sunday, Sept. 9.

The previous record for extreme dryness for the 55-day period from July 20 through Sept. 13 was .27 inches in 1934 during the midst of the infamous 'Dust Bowl Days.' We've gone from a 'Mud Bowl' in the spring to a summer 'Dust Bowl' in 2012 across North Idaho.

By the way, the city of Seattle's puny 0.02 inches of rain on Sunday, Sept. 9, ended a 48-day streak since July 23 without a single drop of moisture. The all-time record rainless period in Seattle occurred during the summer of 1951 when there were 51 days in a row without measurable moisture. The 52 days since July 23, as of this Sept. 13 writing, with .02 inches in Seattle does break the record of just .04 inches set in 1951 at the Sea-Tac Airport. With no rain in sight, Seattle's record drought will only get worse. There were several wildfires reported earlier in the week to the east of the city.

The high pressure ridge that's currently keeping storm systems from the Gulf of Alaska from entering the Pacific Northwest is very strong and quite large in size covering the entire northwestern corner of the U.S. and much of southwestern Canada. Relative humidity levels have been as low as 25 percent in recent days.

As things now stand, our next chance of rain both in the Seattle area and locally in North Idaho won't arrive until at least the Autumnal Equinox of Sept. 22, probably later, so fire danger levels will remain high.

A major change to the wetter wide of the meteorological scale isn't due until the 'new moon' phase of Oct. 15-22, a full month into the fall season. I'll have more details next week in my new 180-day long-range North Idaho weather outlooks. Stay tuned.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com