It looks like we're in 'La Nada,' but we could be eventually heading into another 'El Nino'

The latest sea-surface temperature data indicates that ocean temperatures off the West Coast of South America and along the Equatorial regions are still slightly BELOW normal levels. For the last several months, sea-surface readings were above average indicating a weak El Nino. Based on the current data, it looks like we're back in La Nada (in-between El Nino and La Nina).

The latest computer model projects that we may see a rebound to warmer sea-surface temperatures during the upcoming winter season. However, readings near the Equatorial regions are continuing to cool slightly. If we don't see a new El Nino, but a weak La Nina instead, then snowfall totals for our region will likely be higher. By contrast, if there is a new El Nino, it is expected be rather weak with a little less snowfall. Toward the middle to the end of 2013, however, it looks like another round of cooling that would lead to a new La Nina event.

Ocean temperature are below normal levels in the Gulf of Alaska and east of the Hawaiian Islands. As ocean temperatures moderate, based on the current forecasts, moisture should increase in the dry areas of the northwestern U.S. and the Great Plains over the next several months. However, drought conditions are expected to continue across much of the central portions of the country through at least the end of this year.

Also, sea-surface temperatures are much warmer than normal, up to 4-5 degrees, in the Arctic regions, near the coast of Japan and along the northeastern coastline northward toward Greenland. The warmer waters in the Arctic may explain some of the increased ice melting. But, it does appear that ocean temperatures are starting to cool. Increased volcanic and thermal vent activity, plus long and short term cycles may be some of the reasons why there has been an upward trend of ice melting.

The strong ridge of high pressure that has dominated much of the nation during the summer has moved toward the south. It looks like additional rounds of moisture are expected across the nation's midsection over the next few weeks, perhaps ending the worst overall drought since the 1930s.

SOLAR STORMS MAY INCREASE AGAIN SOON

As we get closer to the expected peak of new solar "maxima" cycle into early 2013, it still looks like this particular cycle will not be very strong. Over the last 6 months, sunspot numbers have ranged between 50 and 120 per day on average. There were a few days last summer when sunspots on the sun rose to 150 or above. Despite the lower figures, there may be a brief period of very high solar activity around the early portion of next year.

Although this 'maxima' cycle has not been very strong, the sun has set off a number of huge explosions that sent a wave of solar charged particles toward the Earth. Earlier this month, the northern lights were seen in our area that amazed skywatchers. As we get toward early 2013, we'll probably see more explosions on the sun that will lead to more light shows across the higher latitudes.

Some computer models suggest that solar activity will rise to over 100 sunspots over the next few weeks and then drop down a bit. The next peak of sunspot activity is expected around the middle of November.

NASA's latest prediction for this solar maxima continues to have a daily average of approximately 50-60 sunspots, making this the smallest sunspot maxima cycle in about 100 years.

Despite the 'back and forth' pattern over the past year, we have already seen a number of moderate solar flares approach the Earth. Despite overall low sunspot numbers, a strong event could cause trillions of dollars worth of damage to satellites, power grids, home electronics, etc. Back in 1989, a solar storm was strong enough to literally shut down a power plant in Canada.

During the 'peak' of the last solar maxima in the late 1990s, we were consistently seeing 200-300 solar storms each day, compared to a recent average of 50 to 75. At this point, it's very unlikely that we'll see sunspot numbers similar to the ones back in the late 1990s, but anything is possible as there is still a lot of time between now and the peak of this cycle in late 2012 or early 2013. Stay tuned.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

By Climatologist Cliff Harris

Ever since our predicted major change weatherwise to the wetter and cooler side of things occurred during the mid October 'new moon' cycle, we've had chilly temperatures and some precipitation on almost a daily basis across North Idaho.

This past Tuesday evening we observed a 'trace' of snow in town as temperatures dipped to near the freezing mark. Some local area weather stations above 3,500 feet received several inches of the white stuff between Sunday and early Thursday morning, Oct. 25.

Randy Mann tells me that the warm 'El Nino' sea-surface temperature event in the waters of the Pacific Ocean has "bitten the dust," and that we're now in a wetter and cooler 'La Nada' cycle. Our three-month drought, a record-breaker locally, has ended. Our monthly precipitation for October is near-normal and our annual rainfall total since Jan. 1 has surpassed 30 inches on Player Drive, well above the normal precipitation for an entire year in Coeur d'Alene of 26.77 inches.

It's still possible that will we will approach the all-time city rainfall mark of 38.77 inches in 1996, the year of the big ICE STORM, before 2012 ends on December 31.

Ironically, we had the wettest spring on record in Coeur d'Alene followed by the driest mid summer to mid October ever observed in town since at least 1895, when local regular weather record began, one more example of our long-standing cycle of WIDE WEATHER 'EXTREMES.'

Next week on Nov. 5, just ahead of the presidential election on Tuesday, Nov. 6, I'll issue my annual winter of 2012-13 snowfall predictions for dozens of towns and cities in North Idaho and surrounding regions of eastern Washington and western Montana.

There may be a few surprises. Stay tuned.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com